NFL DFS Week 9: Jaguars vs. Ravens DraftKings Showdown Picks | November 5, 2026
Week 9 Jaguars-Ravens TNF picks for November 5, 2026: DraftKings Captain choices, FLEX values and the quarterback, injury and role decisions before kickoff.
By Trevor Lawrence is our starting FLEX piece. Parker Washington is our first receiving Captain, while Chris Rodriguez Jr. is the key value decision if Bhayshul Tuten cannot handle his usual workload. Our TNF simulations favor Jacksonville, but they leave plenty of room for Baltimore to stay competitive.
What the simulations say
Jacksonville wins 62.7% of 4,940 game simulations. The most frequent exact score is Jaguars 20, Ravens 13, occurring 0.71% of the time. Average scoring is Jacksonville 23.4, Baltimore 19.4. The game-level results are preliminary and do not yet reflect Fagnano’s revised passing projection.
Player yardage medians and FLEX prices
| Player | Median yards | FLEX |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 233 passing | $10,600 |
| Parker Washington | 44 receiving | $9,400 |
| Brenton Strange | 33 receiving | $7,400 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 28 receiving | $7,000 |
| Derrick Henry | 63 rushing | $10,200 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 55 rushing | $9,800 |
| Joe Fagnano | 184 passing | $8,400 |
| Zay Flowers | 41 receiving | $10,400 |
| Mark Andrews | 23 receiving | $4,400 |
| Justice Hill | 24 receiving | $3,200 |
| Rashod Bateman | 14 receiving | $3,800 |
| Ja’Kobi Lane | 7 receiving | $4,000 |
Our median projections put Fagnano at 184 passing yards, Flowers at 41 receiving yards, Andrews at 23 and Hill at 24. Andrews and Hill provide affordable exposure to Baltimore’s passing game, while Flowers needs a bigger performance to justify his $10,400 salary.
Baltimore’s passing estimates carry considerable uncertainty and may run high. They assume Fagnano plays the full game. Tuten’s 55-yard rushing median assumes his usual workload.
Where Jacksonville’s passing yards go
Lawrence projects for 236.1 passing yards on average, with a median of 233. Washington leads Jacksonville’s receiving projections, followed by Strange and Meyers.
| Player | Average receiving yards |
|---|---|
| Parker Washington | 52.5 |
| Brenton Strange | 41.3 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 35.1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 21.7 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 19.7 |
| Josh Cameron | 15.5 |
| Travis Hunter | 11.2 |
| Nate Boerkircher | 10.7 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 7.3 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 5.0 |
| Other named receivers (Koziol, Abdullah, Morris) | 4.4 |
Washington, Strange and Meyers combine for 128.9 receiving yards on average. Strange saves $2,000 from Washington; Meyers saves another $400.
These original receiving projections assume full workloads for Tuten and Meyers and receiving roles for Thomas and Hunter. Final inactives are confirmed, but active status does not establish a player’s target share. No numerical boost for Wiggins’ absence has been applied.
The $3,400 decision: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
| Jacksonville backfield scenario | Average rushing yards |
|---|---|
| Tuten full | 25.0 rushing yards |
| Tuten limited | 44.9 rushing yards |
| Tuten out | 65.2 rushing yards |
Tuten is active, so the Tuten-out scenario is no longer tonight’s pregame case. Rodriguez’s $3,400 FLEX salary is a tournament decision tied to workload: the original scenarios average 25.0 rushing yards with Tuten full and 44.9 with Tuten limited. Those are conditional estimates, not a new weighted projection. The 65.2-yard Tuten-out row is retained only as a historical scenario.
Pricing decisions and Captain construction
Lawrence: $10,600 FLEX / $15,900 Captain. Our top Jacksonville passing anchor. At 67% projected FLEX ownership and 22% Captain ownership, he will be a popular choice. Start with a receiver at Captain alongside Lawrence; use Lawrence at Captain when expecting touchdowns to spread across several targets.
Washington: $9,400 FLEX / $14,100 Captain. Our first tournament receiving Captain, paired with Lawrence. His 44-yard median sits below the 64.5-yard prop, but touchdowns can still drive a strong DFS score. At 12% projected Captain ownership, he is our preferred route to Jacksonville’s receiving upside.
Strange versus Meyers: Strange costs $7,400 FLEX / $11,100 Captain, with a 33-yard median and 6% projected Captain ownership. Meyers saves $400 at $7,000 FLEX / $10,500 Captain, with a 28-yard median and 5% projected Captain ownership. Strange is our cheaper receiving-Captain alternative to Washington. Meyers is a useful pivot when that $400 improves the rest of the lineup, and he has no game designation.
Tuten: $9,800 FLEX / $14,700 Captain. He is active after three missed practices, but his workload remains uncertain. The 18% projected Captain / 47% FLEX ownership figures are pre-inactives estimates. Rodriguez at $3,400 FLEX / $5,100 Captain is a tournament option if Tuten is limited; do not use the Tuten-out rushing projection as tonight’s default.
Henry: $10,200 FLEX / $15,300 Captain. The Baltimore rushing-touchdown option. His median is 63 rushing yards, with 68.5 cleared in 43.5% of simulations. At 9% projected Captain ownership, his best case is a touchdown-heavy game in which Baltimore leans on the run.
Fagnano: $8,400 FLEX / $12,600 Captain. Pair him with affordable Baltimore pass catchers when building for a competitive passing game. Andrews ($4,400 FLEX / $6,600 Captain) and Hill ($3,200 / $4,800) offer salary relief, with projected Captain ownership of 1% and 2%. Both provide lower-owned alternatives to the expensive receivers, although low ownership alone does not make either a strong Captain play.
Flowers: $10,400 FLEX / $15,600 Captain. He costs only $200 less than Lawrence, despite a 41-yard receiving median. We prefer him for Baltimore stacks built around a big passing performance. Flowers Captain plus Fagnano is the pairing, but the price demands receptions and touchdowns. Lane ($4,000, 7-yard median) and Bateman ($3,800, 14-yard median) are secondary salary pivots.
7:18 p.m. EST prop recheck: The public Caliente page now shows Henry rushing 69.5 (over −120 / under −118), Hill receiving 17.5 (−115 / −120), Flowers receiving 48.5 (−120 / −118) and Fagnano passing 161.5 (−120 / −118). Washington remains 59.5 receiving (−118 / −120). These replace the earlier price comparisons; the displayed simulation frequencies remain tied to their original lines. No numerical model refresh is claimed.
Earlier 6:50 p.m. EST market update: The public Caliente board now shows Washington receiving 59.5 and Henry rushing 70.5, both over −118 / under −120. The earlier 64.5 and 68.5 references above are morning comparisons, not current lines. Jacksonville is −9.5 with a 40-point total, both sides −110. No model rerun or new hit rate is claimed, and the page has no operator update timestamp.
Example tournament lineup
Strange Captain · Lawrence · Washington · Fagnano · Andrews · Little
Salary: $49,300 | Remaining: $700
This example uses four Jaguars and two Ravens, built around Jacksonville passing production and both starting quarterbacks. It loses appeal if touchdowns go to Washington or the running backs instead of Strange. Confirm the final active list before using it.
Projected Captain and FLEX ownership
Projected ownership from STAT-API for the DraftKings $1.25M Thursday Night Showdown ($20, 150-max), checked November 5 at 11:35 a.m. EST. These are pre-inactives estimates; the source does not specify its injury assumptions.
| Player | FLEX salary | Captain salary | Projected CPT | Projected FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | $10,600 | $15,900 | 22% | 67% |
| Parker Washington | $9,400 | $14,100 | 12% | 44% |
| Brenton Strange | $7,400 | $11,100 | 6% | 31% |
| Jakobi Meyers | $7,000 | $10,500 | 5% | 23% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | $9,800 | $14,700 | 18% | 47% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | $3,400 | $5,100 | 3% | 24% |
| Derrick Henry | $10,200 | $15,300 | 9% | 32% |
| Zay Flowers | $10,400 | $15,600 | 4% | 22% |
| Joe Fagnano | $8,400 | $12,600 | 2% | 18% |
| Mark Andrews | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1% | 20% |
| Justice Hill | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2% | 21% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1% | 13% |
| Rashod Bateman | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1% | 11% |
| Cam Little | $5,400 | $8,100 | 2% | 41% |
| Jaguars | $5,800 | $8,700 | 9% | 31% |
| Ravens | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1% | 6% |
Availability comes first: These ownership figures were still displayed at 6:50 p.m. EST, but no source refresh time or final-inactive adjustment was visible. Rodriguez’s 24% FLEX figure is not a verified Tuten-out estimate. Moody has been elevated for tonight; his displayed 0% is an unrefreshed source estimate, not a reason to exclude him. Loop is on IR.
Full 54-player ownership projections and salaries
| Player | FLEX salary | Captain salary | Projected CPT | Projected FLEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | $10,600 | $15,900 | 22% | 67% |
| Bhayshul Tuten | $9,800 | $14,700 | 18% | 47% |
| Parker Washington | $9,400 | $14,100 | 12% | 44% |
| Cam Little | $5,400 | $8,100 | 2% | 41% |
| Derrick Henry | $10,200 | $15,300 | 9% | 32% |
| Jaguars | $5,800 | $8,700 | 9% | 31% |
| Brenton Strange | $7,400 | $11,100 | 6% | 31% |
| Jakobi Meyers | $7,000 | $10,500 | 5% | 23% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | $3,400 | $5,100 | 3% | 24% |
| Zay Flowers | $10,400 | $15,600 | 4% | 22% |
| Justice Hill | $3,200 | $4,800 | 2% | 21% |
| Mark Andrews | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1% | 20% |
| Joe Fagnano | $8,400 | $12,600 | 2% | 18% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1% | 13% |
| Rashod Bateman | $3,800 | $5,700 | 1% | 11% |
| Josh Cameron | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1% | 10% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1% | 9% |
| Nate Boerkircher | $1,600 | $2,400 | 0% | 8% |
| Ravens | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1% | 6% |
| Josh Cuevas | $1,200 | $1,800 | 0% | 6% |
| Travis Hunter | $2,400 | $3,600 | 0% | 6% |
| Ameer Abdullah | $1,000 | $1,500 | 0% | 3% |
| Matt Hibner | $600 | $900 | 0% | 3% |
| Devontez Walker | $2,000 | $3,000 | 0% | 2% |
| Elijah Sarratt | $200 | $300 | 0% | 1% |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | $1,400 | $2,100 | 0% | 1% |
| Adam Randall | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Austin Reed | $8,000 | $12,000 | 0% | 0% |
| Austin Trammell | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Brenden Bates | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| CJ Williams | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Chris Moore | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Durham Smythe | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Gage Larvadain | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| J'Mari Taylor | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Jake Moody | $4,800 | $7,200 | 0% | 0% |
| Joey Aguilar | $6,000 | $9,000 | 0% | 0% |
| Kedon Slovis | $8,000 | $12,000 | 0% | 0% |
| LaJohntay Wester | $800 | $1,200 | 0% | 0% |
| Lamar Jackson | $6,000 | $9,000 | 0% | 0% |
| Lucas Scott | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Michael Wortham | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Nick Mullens | $6,000 | $9,000 | 0% | 0% |
| Nick Vannett | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Quinn Ewers | $6,000 | $9,000 | 0% | 0% |
| Quintin Morris | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Rasheen Ali | $400 | $600 | 0% | 0% |
| Skylar Thompson | $6,000 | $9,000 | 0% | 0% |
| Tanner Koziol | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Tim Jones | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Trebor Pena | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Ty Pezza | $200 | $300 | 0% | 0% |
| Tyler Huntley | $8,800 | $13,200 | 0% | 0% |
| Tyler Loop | $4,800 | $7,200 | 0% | 0% |
Final checks before lock
Final inactive update, November 5: Jacksonville confirms Tuten and Travon Walker are active. Its four inactives are CJ Williams, Alijah Huzzie, Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig and Wesley Williams. Baltimore confirms Nate Wiggins, Jaylinn Hawkins, Elijah Sarratt, Emery Jones Jr. and Aeneas Peebles are inactive; Kedon Slovis is the emergency third quarterback. Austin Reed backs up starter Joe Fagnano, and Jake Moody replaces Tyler Loop at kicker. Tuten’s active status does not confirm a full workload. Rodriguez is a workload-dependent tournament option, not an automatic Tuten-out value. Wiggins’ absence improves Jacksonville’s passing matchup qualitatively; no numerical projection or ownership adjustment has been calculated.
With the final inactive lists confirmed, focus on Tuten’s workload and Rodriguez’s complementary role. Check Moody in the live DraftKings player pool. Remove inactive Sarratt from consideration even though the historical ownership table still displays him. Morning ownership estimates remain preliminary, not refreshed final projections.