NBA DFS for November 5 2026

Evening update, November 5 at 8:06 p.m. ET: The NBA’s 8 p.m. injury report still lists Giannis Antetokounmpo Available. Orlando remains without Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Izaiyah Nelson and Noah Penda; Phoenix remains without Mark Williams, Jordan Goodwin and Rasheer Fleming, and now also lists Drew Timme out on a two-way assignment. Golden State’s four listed absences are unchanged. RotoWire still labels all four starting lineups expected, not confirmed. Anthony Black appears in Orlando’s expected lineup; do not carry the previous game’s supporting-player roles forward automatically.

RotoWire’s checked market display shows Phoenix -1.5 with a 222.5 total and Golden State -3.5 with totals of 235.5–236.5 across its feeds. These are secondary reported prices, not directly verified sportsbook availability. The afternoon captures below are retained as timestamped history, not current offers. The player simulation results below are unchanged from the earlier completed run using history through November 2; this news and price check is not a fresh simulation run.

Conditional simulation rankings · DraftKings Classic · Two games · First tip 9 p.m. ET

Start this small slate with the Curry–Giannis salary decision, then check how the supporting pieces fit. Stephen Curry costs $8,200; Giannis Antetokounmpo costs $11,000. That $2,800 difference matters when only four teams can supply the rest of the lineup.

Miami is playing again after an overtime win, while Phoenix is also on a back-to-back. Phoenix has now ruled out Mark Williams, Jordan Goodwin and Rasheer Fleming. All four teams had submitted reports by the NBA’s 3:45 p.m. ET update. Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed Available for Miami. That resolves the missing-report issue, but does not promise an unrestricted workload or a confirmed starting lineup.

The two games

• Orlando at Phoenix, 9 p.m. ET: Suns -1.5, total 222.5 in ESPN’s 3:55 p.m. ET capture.
• Miami at Golden State, 10 p.m. ET: The latest ESPN capture returned no game odds; verify the current spread and total before using them.

ESPN attributes the Orlando–Phoenix prices to DraftKings. A separate BetSharp snapshot, labeled 3:51 p.m. ET and checked at 3:56 p.m., reported Golden State -4.5 and a 235.5 total at DraftKings, versus -7.5 and 232.5 at FanDuel. Those differences warrant a direct check rather than treating one aggregator number as the consensus. These are secondary reported prices, not verified sportsbook availability. Treat totals as market context, not player projections. Magic–Suns · Heat–Warriors reported markets

The simulation ranking

Giannis leads the admitted pool in projected raw points, while Curry offers the strongest mean return per salary dollar. The run generated 20,000 outcomes for each of 32 players, or 640,000 individual player outcomes. Another 37 salary-list entries were withheld rather than assigned unsupported projections. These are separate player simulations, not 20,000 complete slates.

Top six by conditional mean DraftKings points:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, $11,000: 52.09 mean DK points; 33.75–71.50 across the simulated 10th–90th percentiles.
2. Stephen Curry, $8,200: 43.04 mean DK points; 25.75–61.50 across the simulated 10th–90th percentiles.
3. Franz Wagner, $8,700: 40.14 mean DK points; 26.25–55.25 across the simulated 10th–90th percentiles.
4. Bam Adebayo, $7,800: 37.40 mean DK points; 23.25–52.50 across the simulated 10th–90th percentiles.
5. Devin Booker, $8,500: 36.15 mean DK points; 23.00–50.25 across the simulated 10th–90th percentiles.
6. Yaxel Lendeborg, $7,900: 36.11 mean DK points; 21.75–51.50 across the simulated 10th–90th percentiles.

Curry’s 43.04-point mean works out to 5.25 DK points per $1,000, versus Giannis at 4.74. Giannis still carries the higher raw ceiling in this run: his 90th percentile is 71.50, compared with Curry’s 61.50. Paying the extra $2,800 buys more modeled raw production, not better mean salary efficiency.

Salary value beyond the stars

Davion Mitchell ($6,400) averages 32.89 DK points, or 5.14 per $1,000, and Brandin Podziemski ($6,700) averages 34.20, or 5.10 per $1,000. Those are the next two mean salary-value leaders after Curry among the 32 simulated players. Miles Bridges ($7,100) follows at 34.73 points and 4.89 per $1,000. This gives a practical comparison order when filling the middle of a build; it is not an optimized lineup or a tournament-leverage ranking.

Tristan da Silva averages 24.30 at $5,300, with a 13.00–36.50 simulated 10th–90th percentile range. Khaman Maluach averages 20.14 at $4,800, with an 8.25–33.50 range. Oso Ighodaro does not receive a projection in this run because he has fewer than five verified historical appearances in the model input. His recent box score is context, not a substitute for a supported role estimate.

What these numbers assume

The simulations apply November 5 salaries and reviewed status inputs to historical player data ending November 2. Wednesday’s box scores below inform the discussion but are not newly fitted into that historical model. Every result is conditional on the player appearing and continuing his recent same-team role. The model does not estimate the chance of playing, redistribute absent teammates’ production, or simulate teammate and game correlations. It has not established calibrated hit rates. The percentile ranges describe generated outcomes, not guaranteed floors or ceilings.

Anthony Black and several other uncertain-role players remain withheld. A player absent from the injury report is not automatically confirmed active or unrestricted. Because player draws are separate, do not add their percentiles or matching draw numbers to claim lineup win rates, team totals or game outcomes.

Where to spend

Stephen Curry, $8,200, PG. Curry is the first salary comparison to make before paying all the way up. He scored 34 points with six rebounds and seven assists in Golden State’s last game. The price is $300 below Devin Booker and $500 below Franz Wagner. Curry’s shooting can still swing a result sharply, so the lower salary does not turn him into a safe outcome. Golden State’s last box score

Giannis Antetokounmpo, $11,000, PF. His combination of scoring, rebounds and defensive stats gives plenty of ways to accumulate fantasy points. The immediate question is workload: he played 41 minutes in Wednesday’s overtime win, finishing with 27 points, 14 rebounds, six assists, two steals and three blocks. He is now officially Available. The overtime workload still belongs in the assessment before committing the slate’s largest salary. Miami’s overtime win

Franz Wagner, $8,700, SF/PF, and Desmond Bane, $7,200, SG/SF. Orlando is still without Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs. Wagner played about 38 minutes and Bane about 36 in the Magic’s last game. Bane costs $1,500 less, which makes him worth comparing when the lineup needs room for a second expensive player. The extra touches are relevant, but their prices already ask for substantial production. Orlando’s last box score

The middle of the salary list

Brandin Podziemski, $6,700, PG/SG. His guard flexibility helps fit different builds. He played about 33 minutes in Golden State’s last game. Check the backcourt rotation again when Brandon Williams’ game-day status and the starters are clear; an old injury label should not decide tonight’s allocation.

Tristan da Silva, $5,300, SF/PF. Orlando’s frontcourt absences keep him on the list. He played about 32 minutes Monday, but 10 points and four rebounds were a reminder that minutes alone do not guarantee a big fantasy return. Use the lower salary to compare roster structures, not to assume a breakout.

Oso Ighodaro, $4,500, C, and Khaman Maluach, $4,800, C. Phoenix’s center minutes deserve more attention than the starting label. Ighodaro played 23 minutes off the bench Wednesday; Maluach started and played 16. Ighodaro also contributed seven assists and three blocks, a strong result that should not be treated as his nightly expectation. Mark Williams is officially out, but that does not settle how these two will divide the center minutes. Check the starting lineup without assuming the starter gets the larger share. Phoenix’s last box score

Three traps to avoid

• Chasing Miami’s overtime minutes. Giannis and Bam Adebayo each played 41 minutes, and Davion Mitchell played 43. Those totals came in an overtime game. Bam is $7,800 and Mitchell $6,400 tonight.
• Carrying Monday’s Orlando lineup forward unchanged. Anthony Black is $6,000 and is absent from the current official injury list. That is not a confirmed starting assignment. Recheck Jase Richardson at $4,600 and Jamal Cain at $4,000 rather than assuming their last-game minutes repeat.
• Using an out player’s salary as available value. Banchero, Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Izaiyah Nelson and Noah Penda are officially out for Orlando. Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos are out for Golden State.

Before the first tip, review any newer injury updates and both starting lineups. If your contest allows late swaps, keep later-game players in flexible roster slots where possible. NBA injury report, 3:45 p.m. ET

All salaries and positions are from the supplied November 5 DraftKings Classic export. The rankings above use the completed conditional simulation run; the remaining player discussion includes source-based context. No result is guaranteed.