NHL Simulations: Scores, Player Props and Betting Outlook | November 5, 2026
Twenty thousand simulations per matchup: NHL scores, a Michkov–Gritsyuk prop watchlist, star-price passes and the DFS takeaway for November 5.
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COVER THE SLATE · NHL SIMULATIONS · NOVEMBER 5, 2026
Edmonton leads the scoring. Tampa leads the win column.
Twenty thousand runs per matchup put Edmonton at 3.74 goals and Tampa at a 63.2% win frequency. The player-prop watchlist starts with Michkov and Gritsyuk, while several star prices look too expensive against these projections.
Twenty thousand simulations per matchup. Ten matchups have current projections below; Vegas–Detroit remains withheld pending a refreshed simulation that includes Olofsson’s reported return alongside Hertl and Connelly. No new Vegas output has been calculated. Montreal’s Suzuki and Dach are back, and Dallas–Columbus includes the latest projected players.
The scoreboard: 20,000 runs for each matchup
| Game | Most frequent exact score | Overall win leader | Average goals, away–home |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA at MTL | UTA 2–MTL 3 | MTL 53.6% | 3.14–3.38 |
| VGK at DET | Awaiting model refresh | Withheld | Withheld |
| CHI at TBL | CHI 2–TBL 3 | TBL 63.2% | 2.82–3.63 |
| STL at NJD | STL 2–NJD 3 | NJD 54.6% | 3.01–3.29 |
| CAR at NYI | CAR 3–NYI 2 | CAR 52.7% | 3.11–2.93 |
| PHI at NYR | PHI 2–NYR 3 | NYR 58.7% | 2.74–3.26 |
| BOS at PIT | BOS 3–PIT 2 | BOS 52.5% | 3.22–3.06 |
| DAL at CBJ | DAL 2–CBJ 3 | DAL 51.1% | 2.99–2.93 |
| VAN at WPG | VAN 3–WPG 4 | WPG 55.8% | 3.10–3.47 |
| ANA at EDM | ANA 3–EDM 4 | EDM 59.8% | 3.09–3.74 |
| NSH at COL | NSH 2–COL 3 | COL 56.5% | 3.11–3.51 |
These exact scores occurred in 6.8%–8.4% of simulations. The win column includes all score outcomes. Both Dallas–Columbus 3–2 scorelines occur in about 7.8% of simulations. Columbus has game-time decisions.
What the team results say about the price
Tampa Bay is the strongest win result, not an automatic moneyline bet. The quoted -455 price requires 82.0% wins to break even before any settlement complications. Our 63.2% is far below that. A large favorite can be a good DFS environment without being a good price to back.
Anaheim–Edmonton supplies the most offense: 6.82 average total goals, with seven or more in 55.1% of runs. That makes it the first game environment to examine for scoring exposure. Verify the live total and price rather than treating the average as a bet.
Three anytime-goal prices to investigate
| Player / market | Quoted odds | Scored in simulations | Quote break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Michkov anytime goal | +215 | 36.7% | 31.7% |
| Arseny Gritsyuk anytime goal | +260 | 34.1% | 27.8% |
| Mark Jankowski anytime goal | +290 | 32.7% | 25.6% |
Matvei Michkov +215: He scores in 36.7% of simulations, against a 31.7% break-even point. His 10 goals on 27 shots in 17 games warrant caution. Philadelphia’s projected chart places him with Cates and Foerster and on PP1. This is a player-scoring watch, not a Flyers-win pick.
Arseny Gritsyuk +260: Scores in 34.1% of runs, against 27.8% break-even. His listed line with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt makes him the cheaper even-strength companion. He is not on the listed PP1. Keep that distinction in the price assessment rather than assuming the Hughes connection applies on every shift.
Mark Jankowski +290: His 32.7% scoring frequency exceeds the price’s 25.6% break-even point. Eight goals on 24 shots in 13 games is a hot stretch, and the Carolina chart puts him on the third line with Martinook and Jarvis, not PP1. Keep this as a watchlist play until the final lineup and price are checked.
The star prices we would not force
| Market | Quoted odds | Simulation hit rate | Quote break-even |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDavid anytime goal | -110 | 33.6% | 52.4% |
| Kucherov 1+ assist | -240 | 56.4% | 70.6% |
McDavid’s anytime-goal price is -110, requiring 52.4% to break even; he scores in 33.6% of simulations. Kucherov’s 1+ assist at -240 needs 70.6%, against a 56.4% simulated hit rate. Both are passes at those prices. Stankoven clears 2.5 shots in 44.1% of simulations, but his current price is unverified.
The DFS takeaway
Kyle Connor is the first skater to build around. At $7,300, he averages 15.7 DraftKings points and 3.80 shots tonight. Connor–Scheifele–Vilardi costs $17,600 and averages 32.7 DK points. Edmonton’s $23,200 first line leads at 36.0, but Winnipeg is much easier to fit beside another scoring group.
The original $14,200 Hagel–Cirelli–Mikheyev combination is no longer supported as a current same-line stack. Tampa’s latest projected lines differ from the older Daily Faceoff chart. Use Hagel–Cirelli as a pair and Mikheyev only as a separate value unless warmups restore the old line. The existing simulation outputs have not been rerun for this deployment change.
What still needs to be settled
The 5:36 p.m. ET goalie check has 12 confirmed starters, now including Carolina’s Brandon Bussi. Edmonton’s Matt Tomkins, Skinner, Garand, Dobes, DeSmith and Talbot remain confirmed. Vasilevskiy and Anaheim’s Brossoit remain likely, not confirmed. Dallas confirms Heiskanen out and Taylor in, with Blackwell replacing Steel. Columbus projects Voronkov in for Heinen, but several Blue Jackets remain game-time decisions. The official lineup report provides the latest projected players. DeSmith and Talbot are confirmed in goal. Current power-play assignments are unverified; do not assume a Harley promotion. Olofsson has been cleared to return, per the coach report linked above; Vegas–Detroit projections remain withheld pending a model refresh.
Projections use player history through November 3. Current power-play and ice-time changes, and individual goalie differences, are not reflected. Simulation percentages are not guarantees.
Quotes: DraftKings Network props, checked approximately 3:06 p.m. ET; game prices, checked approximately 2:58 p.m. ET on November 5. Stankoven over 2.5 shots remains an unpriced watchlist item, not a current quoted bet. Quotes can change and may vary by jurisdiction. Bet only where legal and within a budget.