NHL DFS: Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Stacks and DraftKings Values | November 5, 2026
Kyle Connor leads the early NHL player simulations. Compare Winnipeg and Edmonton stacks, salary values and a conditional $49,100 DraftKings build.
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COVER THE SLATE · NHL DFS · NOVEMBER 5, 2026
Kyle Connor leads. Winnipeg makes the build work.
Connor tops the projected skater board at 15.7 DraftKings points. His line costs $5,600 less than Edmonton’s leading trio while giving up only 3.4 points in the simulation average.
The 11-game slate starts at 7 p.m. ET. Nine games begin in the opening window, Anaheim–Edmonton follows at 8 p.m., and Nashville–Colorado closes at 9:30 p.m. All prices and roster positions are from the supplied November 5 DraftKings contest.
Twenty thousand simulations per matchup. Ten matchups have current projections below; Vegas–Detroit remains withheld pending a refreshed simulation that includes Olofsson’s reported return alongside Hertl and Connelly. No new Vegas output has been calculated. Montreal’s Suzuki and Dach are back, and Dallas–Columbus includes the latest projected players.
Start with Connor, Scheifele and Vilardi
W Kyle Connor $7,300 + C Mark Scheifele $6,200 + W Gabriel Vilardi $4,100 = $17,600. This is our preferred stack for the combination of price, player output and shared deployment. The latest Winnipeg chart groups all three at even strength and on PP1. Those assignments are projected, not confirmed.
The trio averages 32.7 DK points in the joint simulations, with a 90th-percentile result of 54.7. Connor supplies the largest individual share: 15.7 DK points and 3.80 shots per game in the runs. Vilardi is the $4,100 piece that keeps the stack affordable.
Add Neal Pionk at $4,500 when you want a fourth Jets skater. He is listed on the same first power-play unit and averages 9.4 DK points. Winnipeg wins 55.8% of the simulated games, so the stack still carries meaningful failure risk against Vancouver.
The premium alternative: Edmonton’s first line
Vasily Podkolzin $5,200 + Connor McDavid $9,500 + Leon Draisaitl $8,500 = $23,200. Edmonton has the highest average final score tonight at 3.74 goals. Its listed first line also has the highest projected line total: 36.0 DK points, with a 62.0-point 90th percentile.
The decision is price. That is $5,600 more than Winnipeg for 3.4 extra points in the average, so Edmonton is the expensive alternative rather than the default. McDavid and Draisaitl share PP1; Podkolzin does not. A two-man McDavid–Draisaitl combination costs $18,000 and leaves more flexibility than forcing the full trio.
Hagel–Cirelli pairing, with Mikheyev as a separate value
Brandon Hagel $7,600 + Anthony Cirelli $4,100 + Ilya Mikheyev $2,500 = $14,200. Hagel averages 13.4 DK points and 3.51 shots in the simulation, third among projected skaters in DK output. The original three-player combination averages 26.6 DK points in the existing simulations, but it is no longer the latest projected line. NHL.com projects Hagel–Cirelli–Goncalves, with Mikheyev on line three. Do not treat the old trio as a current same-line stack.
Use Hagel–Cirelli as the correlated pair; Mikheyev is a separate salary-saving option. The following power-play roles come from the older Daily Faceoff chart and require confirmation: Cirelli is listed on PP1, Hagel on PP2 and Mikheyev on neither unit, so do not describe it as a full power-play stack. It saves $6,500 against Tampa’s Guentzel–Point–Kucherov trio, which averages 31.6 DK points at $20,700.
Dawson Mercer, W, $2,800: A salary saver at 7.4 projected DK points, now listed with Cole Perfetti and Brayden Yager at even strength and on PP2. Connor Brown, W, $2,800: Another cheap route, averaging 7.3 DK points with a listed PP1 role in New Jersey. Use Brown with a Devils build rather than assuming the inexpensive first-unit spot guarantees extra minutes.
Player outlook: where the spending goes
| Player | Salary | Projected DK average | Shots average | 90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Connor | $7,300 | 15.7 | 3.8 | 30.3 |
| Connor McDavid | $9,500 | 14.1 | 2.2 | 28.0 |
| Brandon Hagel | $7,600 | 13.4 | 3.5 | 26.0 |
| Leon Draisaitl | $8,500 | 13.4 | 2.8 | 27.5 |
| Jack Hughes | $8,300 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 25.0 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | $9,300 | 12.8 | 3.2 | 25.5 |
| Evan Bouchard | $7,500 | 12.2 | 2.2 | 24.5 |
| Roman Josi | $6,000 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 20.4 |
| Adam Fox | $5,300 | 10.0 | 1.3 | 19.5 |
| Neal Pionk | $4,500 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 18.4 |
Evan Bouchard leads the projected defensemen at 12.2 DK points but costs $7,500. Roman Josi at $6,000 and Adam Fox at $5,300 are the less expensive alternatives. Pionk is the fit when building around Winnipeg.
Goalies: buy the matchup only after the starter is named
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay, $8,500: A conditional choice alongside the Lightning stack. Tampa wins 63.2% of these runs, the highest rate among the current projections. The 2:03 p.m. goalie board lists him as likely, not confirmed.
Dylan Garand, New York Rangers, $8,000: A confirmed, lower-priced alternative. New York wins 58.7% of its simulated games. Matt Tomkins, Edmonton, $8,000: Confirmed to start against Anaheim; Edmonton wins 59.8%. Do not roster a goalie opposite your main scoring stack.
Skinner is confirmed for Winnipeg at $8,400, and Garand is confirmed for the Rangers at $8,000. Edmonton’s Tomkins is now confirmed at $8,000. Vasilevskiy remains likely, not confirmed, on the 5:36 p.m. ET goalie check. Bussi is now confirmed for Carolina. Jarry is not starting.
Example tournament build: $49,100
This $49,100 example retains four Jets, Hagel–Cirelli, Mikheyev as a separate salary saver, and Gostisbehere. It leaves $900 unspent. Tampa’s revised projected lines weaken the original three-man correlation, so this is not an updated optimal lineup. Vasilevskiy is still only likely; confirm his start and the final lines before using it. Goncalves has not been substituted because his contest salary and position have not been verified here.
| Slot | Player | Team | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|
| C | Mark Scheifele | WPG | $6,200 |
| C | Anthony Cirelli | TBL | $4,100 |
| W | Kyle Connor | WPG | $7,300 |
| W | Gabriel Vilardi | WPG | $4,100 |
| W | Brandon Hagel | TBL | $7,600 |
| D | Neal Pionk | WPG | $4,500 |
| D | Shayne Gostisbehere | CAR | $4,300 |
| G | Andrei Vasilevskiy | TBL | $8,500 |
| UTIL | Ilya Mikheyev | TBL | $2,500 |
| Total | $49,100 |
News that can change the slate
Winnipeg now has Brayden Yager in for Nino Niederreiter, and Detroit has Nate Danielson in for John Leonard. Winnipeg’s top trio remains together. Tyrel Bauer is listed on the fourth forward line, but his forecast retains his defenseman history; the new forward deployment is not reflected in his projection.
Dallas confirms Heiskanen out and Taylor in, with Blackwell replacing Steel. Columbus projects Voronkov in for Heinen, but several Blue Jackets remain game-time decisions. The official lineup report provides the latest projected players. DeSmith and Talbot are confirmed in goal. Current power-play assignments are unverified; do not assume a Harley promotion.
Recheck Winnipeg’s power play, Tampa’s 11-forward alignment and the remaining goalie announcements before lock. Suzuki and Dach return for Montreal, replacing Florian Xhekaj and Beck. St. Louis includes Kaskimaki and Parayko instead of Berggren and Lindstein. Colorado now lists Kadri on PP1 and Lehkonen on PP2. Olofsson has been cleared to return, per the coach report linked above. Vegas projections remain withheld until the model is refreshed.
Nick Suzuki, C, $7,100: The returning captain averages 10.8 DK points and 2.16 shots tonight. Kirby Dach, W, $2,500: His return adds a cheap fourth-line option, with an average of 4.4 DK points.
Projections use player history through November 3. Current power-play and ice-time changes, and individual goalie differences, are not reflected. Simulation percentages are not guarantees.
Sources checked November 5 around 3 p.m. ET. Salaries: the supplied DraftKings main-slate export. Vegas–Detroit remains withheld pending a model refresh for Olofsson’s return. Columbus still has game-time decisions.