College Football Best Bets October 8, 2026: Four Thursday Night Games

Four FBS games make up Thursday’s October 8 college football board. We prefer selective sides and totals rather than forcing an equal stake on every matchup.

Tonight’s slate

7 p.m. ET: Missouri State at Western Kentucky; Sam Houston at Liberty. 7:30 p.m. ET: South Alabama at Arkansas State; South Florida at UTSA.

Best bets

1. Missouri State +1.5 at Western Kentucky (-108, DraftKings)

We prefer Missouri State in a matchup between struggling defenses. The Bears stayed within three points of SMU into the fourth quarter of their last game, while Western Kentucky has allowed 6.22 yards per carry. That weakness gives Missouri State a route to sustained drives instead of needing repeated difficult third-down conversions.

Quarterback Skyler Locklear is expected to retain the starting job after getting hurt against SMU, according to the CUSA matchup preview. This pick assumes he starts; it is not a blind endorsement of the Bears with a replacement quarterback. Missouri State’s own defense is the reason to keep the stake modest. Play +1.5 or better, up to -110. Price reference: the DraftKings odds-comparison row.

2. South Alabama at Arkansas State over 59.5 (-114, FanDuel)

South Alabama is averaging 35.4 points while allowing 31.6. More importantly, its defense is surrendering 7.2 yards per play. We like this total because the Jaguars can contribute offense and give up explosive gains, not because recent overs must keep happening.

Arkansas State still has to contribute. Empty red-zone trips are the main threat to the bet. Our ceiling is 60.5 at -115 or better. The FanDuel market card lists over 59.5 at -114.

3. South Florida +7 at UTSA (-118 market quote)

USF is the underdog. UTSA is the favorite. Both teams are 4-1. Our preference is to take a full touchdown with a Bulls defense allowing 14.6 points per game, rather than assume UTSA creates separation simply because it is at home.

The official UTSA preview also supplies the reason not to get carried away: the Roadrunners are 35-5 at home under Jeff Traylor. This is a bet on USF staying within range, not a claim that San Antonio is an easy road trip. Require +7 or better and no worse than -120. Pass at +6.5. The Action Network market board lists +7 at -118.

4. Liberty -13.5 vs. Sam Houston (-110, FanDuel)

Liberty’s 208.2 rushing yards per game meet a Sam Houston defense allowing 190.2 and 5.0 yards per carry. That gives the favorite a plausible way to extend drives and turn a lead into a two-touchdown margin. The FanDuel quote keeps us below 14.

Sam Houston is not an automatic under team: its passing attack averages 308.0 yards. That is the backdoor-cover risk and why we prefer Liberty’s side to forcing a full-game under. Play -13.5 up to -115; pass once the spread reaches -14.5.

How we would prioritize the card

Missouri State +1.5 and South Florida +7 are our preferred sides at the listed thresholds. Liberty -13.5 is next. South Alabama-Arkansas State over 59.5 is the more volatile total, where a handful of empty scoring possessions can decide the ticket.

We prefer these as straight bets rather than combining all four. USF’s full touchdown and Liberty staying below 14 are important parts of the selections, not interchangeable numbers. Prices vary by book and location.

More analysis: College football betting coverage and tonight’s NFL betting card.