College Football Player Props October 10: 5 Picks and TD Parlay

Arch Manning’s passing under and Re’Shaun Sanford II’s rushing over lead our college football player props for October 10. We’re also looking at a wind-sensitive quarterback under in Lincoln, LSU’s lead back against a depleted Kentucky linebacker group, and four catches from an Oregon tight end whose role survived a quarterback change.

Here are five statistical props for Saturday, followed by a separate two-leg touchdown parlay. Manning and Sanford are our preferred singles. The other three have more price, weather or sample-size risk.

College football player props for October 10

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Player	Pick	Quoted odds	Sportsbook	Matchup / start
Anthony Colandrea	Under 197.5 passing yards	-114	FanDuel	Indiana at Nebraska / noon
Arch Manning	Under 210.5 passing yards	-114	FanDuel	Texas vs. Oklahoma / 3:30 p.m.
Re’Shaun Sanford II	Over 54.5 rushing yards	-114	FanDuel	Houston at Kansas State / 3:30 p.m.
Jamari Johnson	Over 3.5 receptions	-154	FanDuel	UCLA at Oregon / 3:38 p.m.
Dilin Jones	Over 90.5 rushing yards	-114	FanDuel	LSU at Kentucky / 7 p.m.

Oregon’s television window begins at 3:30 p.m.; UCLA’s official game preview lists a 3:38 p.m. kickoff.

1. Arch Manning under 210.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Manning has finished with 195, 161 and 201 passing yards in his last three games. His season average is 215.5, so this number already asks us to go below his baseline. The reason to do it is Oklahoma’s pressure and ability to end possessions.

The Sooners enter Red River allowing 122.5 passing yards per game and a 51.9% completion rate, with 3.3 sacks per game, according to their official game primer. Those averages come from only four games and aren’t opponent-adjusted. Still, holding Georgia’s Gunner Stockton to 171 passing yards gives the case more substance than a pile of production against overmatched opponents.

Texas can win without asking Manning to pile up yardage. He stayed below this line in the comeback against Ohio State, despite Texas needing a big fourth quarter. That doesn’t eliminate the risk: a missed tackle on a short completion or a prolonged chase script could undo this under quickly. We prefer it at 210.5 and would pass below 205.5.

2. Re’Shaun Sanford II over 54.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Sanford’s recent workload matters more than his season-long 11-carry average. Houston says he has led the team in both rushing attempts and rushing yards in each of its last two games. Against UCF, he carried 18 times for 62 yards even though the Cougars fell behind 17-0. Houston kept handing him the ball while working back into the game.

That gives us a reasonable route to 55 yards without needing a long touchdown. Kansas State has allowed 139.8 rushing yards per game at 4.0 per carry. A workload in the mid-teens can get Sanford over this number on ordinary gains, although we’re not projecting that workload as a certainty.

The committee is the concern. Makhi Hughes still has more season carries, 66 to Sanford’s 55, and quarterback Conner Weigman takes rushing opportunities too. Those splits are in Houston’s cumulative statistics. We’re backing the recent shift, not treating Sanford as an every-down back. Keep this at 54.5 or 55.5; a move into the 60s changes the bet.

3. Anthony Colandrea under 197.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)

This is our weather-dependent play. The National Weather Service’s stadium-area hourly forecast calls for sustained south winds of 20–21 mph through the expected game window in Lincoln. That makes us less willing to pay for Nebraska’s recent passing production to carry over.

Indiana also presents a tougher efficiency test. The Hoosiers have allowed 173.4 passing yards per game, recorded 15 sacks and held opponents to 26.1% on third down in their official season statistics. Their early schedule includes Howard, so the raw averages deserve some restraint. The combination of pressure, stalled drives and wind is the reason for this under.

Colandrea is averaging 228.4 passing yards and just threw for 238 against Maryland. Nebraska may also have to throw more because Indiana has been difficult to run against. Extra attempts and yards after the catch are the ways this loses, even if the downfield passing is uneven. We want the full 197.5, and we would pass if the game-time wind forecast drops materially into the low teens.

4. Dilin Jones over 90.5 rushing yards (-114, FanDuel)

Jones has 94 carries through five games, comfortably ahead of LSU’s other running backs. His 85.2-yard average is below this line, so the matchup has to justify asking for more. Kentucky’s Friday SEC availability report lists inside linebackers Antwan Smith, Alex Afari Jr. and Tavion Wallace out. That is a meaningful depth problem against an offense with a clear lead runner.

Kentucky has allowed 144.2 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. Jones has already handled 23 carries in both the Clemson and Ole Miss games, per LSU’s official statistics. At his season rate of 4.5 yards per carry, roughly 21 attempts would get him across this line. That’s a workload scenario, not a yardage projection.

The Kentucky weather advisory and hourly forecast make this a smaller play. Rain, thunderstorms and roughly 20 mph winds around kickoff could encourage rushing, but they can also kill drives and create delays. Sam Leavitt and LSU’s other backs remain carry competition. We would pass above 92.5 rather than chase the weather angle.

5. Jamari Johnson over 3.5 receptions (-154, FanDuel)

Four catches is the target, and the price is the catch. Johnson has appeared in only two games this season, with 11 receptions total. His seven-catch, 119-yard return against USC was encouraging, but it is too small a sample to turn into a reliable hit-rate claim.

There is a useful detail in the official USC play-by-play: four of Johnson’s seven catches came from Dylan Raiola after Dante Moore left. They gained 34, eight, four and 17 yards. Johnson remained involved after the quarterback change. With Moore out and Johnson and Raiola available on Friday’s Big Ten report, that is more useful than assuming a new starter will automatically lean on his tight end.

UCLA’s productive running game could limit Oregon’s possessions, and Evan Stewart, Dakorien Moore and Dierre Hill Jr. all compete for catches. We still like Johnson to reach four, but -154 leaves much less room for error than the other prices on this card. Our ceiling is -155 at 3.5. We would pass on 4.5 rather than pay for five receptions.

Before kickoff

The five selections were listed available in their conferences’ Friday reports. Those are pregame updates, not guarantees of a full workload. Recheck game-day availability, the Lincoln wind and the Lexington storm forecast before using the card. Our line and price limits are editorial judgments, not additional quoted sportsbook markets.

For the four picks priced around -115, we would stop at -120 at the listed line. Avoid bundling all five just because they share a table. Manning and Sanford are our first choices as singles. More matchup coverage is in our college football section.

Separate touchdown parlay: Ja’Kobi Jackson + Ryan Coleman-Williams

• Ja’Kobi Jackson anytime touchdown: -200 at BetMGM, Maryland at Ohio State, 4:15 p.m. ET.
• Ryan Coleman-Williams anytime touchdown: +145 at BetMGM, Georgia at Alabama, 7:30 p.m. ET. BetMGM lists him as Ryan Williams.

Jackson has scored in each of Ohio State’s five games. His seven-yard touchdown against Iowa came with the Buckeyes already ahead 24-6, which helps the case that a comfortable lead need not remove his scoring opportunity. Bo Jackson’s share of the backfield is the obvious risk.

Coleman-Williams supplies the plus-money leg. He has scored in three consecutive games, including a 15-yard touchdown against Mississippi State. His role gives Alabama a receiving route to a score against Georgia, but a three-game streak isn’t a forecast. Other receivers can finish drives, and Tuscaloosa’s rain risk and wind make this a smaller-stake add-on.

Parlay pricing varies by sportsbook; check the combined price and settlement rules before placing it. Both players must score for the two-leg parlay to win; keep the stake smaller than either preferred statistical single.