College Football Night Game Picks for October 10, 2026

USC’s rushing matchup and the defenses in Salt Lake City give us two clear starting points for Saturday night’s college football card. We’re also taking a full touchdown with Fresno State in the final window and targeting two players with established scoring roles in the SEC.

These five picks cover games scheduled for 7 p.m. Eastern or later on October 10, 2026, using the official NCAA schedule and updated team announcements. Weather matters in Lexington, Tuscaloosa and Salt Lake City, especially when deciding how much to pay for a touchdown prop.

Our Saturday night betting card

Game	Our pick	Odds	Sportsbook	Time (ET)
LSU at Kentucky	Sam Leavitt anytime touchdown	-200	BetMGM	7 p.m.
USC at Penn State	USC moneyline	+102	DraftKings	7:30 p.m.
Georgia at Alabama	Ryan Coleman-Williams anytime touchdown	+145	BetMGM	7:30 p.m.
Kansas at Utah	Under 51.5 points	-115	DraftKings	8 p.m.
Boise State at Fresno State	Fresno State +7	-110	DraftKings	10:30 p.m.

College-player props are available only where permitted and offered by the sportsbook. Our touchdown selections require the player to score himself. A touchdown pass does not cash the quarterback’s anytime-touchdown bet.

Sam Leavitt anytime touchdown (-200, BetMGM)

LSU at Kentucky, 7 p.m. ET

We’re paying for a quarterback who is already a major part of LSU’s rushing touchdown distribution. Leavitt has 45 carries, 220 rushing yards and six rushing scores through five games, one more touchdown on the ground than starting running back Dilin Jones. That gives us a real scoring role to work with at this price. LSU’s season statistics also show 19 rushing touchdowns as a team.

Kentucky has allowed nine rushing touchdowns and 4.2 yards per carry. It has also surrendered conversions on 34 of 74 third downs, which creates a path for LSU to extend drives and reach scoring territory. We like Leavitt’s ability to finish those possessions himself. Those matchup figures come from Kentucky’s official statistics.

The risk: Jones and LSU’s other backs still compete for the same touchdowns, and -200 leaves little room for a scoreless outing. Kentucky’s rain-and-wind advisory adds ball-security and drive-efficiency risk. We prefer a rushing scoring route in these conditions, but poor weather can also reduce the number of scoring chances. We would not chase a shorter price.

USC moneyline (+102, DraftKings)

USC at Penn State, 7:30 p.m. ET

We like USC’s ability to attack a Penn State defense that just allowed Northwestern to run for 413 yards on 55 carries. One game can distort a season average, but that performance creates a specific opening for King Miller. USC’s leading rusher has 493 yards on 95 carries, and his 18 attempts against Washington led the backfield. The Trojans can test Penn State on the ground before asking Jayden Maiava to carry every possession.

Maiava provides the passing upside if the Nittany Lions bring extra help toward the run. He has completed 68.6% of his passes with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions. Penn State, meanwhile, scored 20 and 13 points in its first two Big Ten games. Those are the offensive profiles we prefer at a plus-money price. The matchup and usage figures are detailed in USC’s game notes.

The risk: USC has its own uncertainty on the defensive front, with Jahkeem Stewart and Jide Abasiri questionable. A Penn State rebound on the ground could keep Maiava off the field. The White Out environment also makes protection calls and avoiding early mistakes important. We’re taking the outright-win price rather than paying juice for a 1.5-point cushion.

Ryan Coleman-Williams anytime touchdown (+145, BetMGM)

Georgia at Alabama, 7:30 p.m. ET

Coleman-Williams has caught four of Alabama’s 11 touchdown passes and leads the team with 376 receiving yards. His 20 receptions have produced 18.8 yards per catch, giving this bet a way to win from outside the red zone. Alabama’s official season totals support the role, and the Tide’s Mississippi State recap confirms he has scored in three straight games.

Georgia is allowing only 57.4 rushing yards per game. Our read is that Alabama will need its passing game to create some of its better scoring chances, making Coleman-Williams the receiver we want at +145. The matchup still calls for a much lower scoring expectation than Alabama’s early-season average.

The risk: Georgia can limit explosive completions, and the weather could take away the deep-ball route. The stadium forecast calls for southerly wind around 15 mph and a chance of showers during the opening hours. That makes this a smaller-stake selection. BetMGM lists him as Ryan Williams.

Kansas at Utah under 51.5 (-115, DraftKings)

8 p.m. ET

Utah moved kickoff to 8 p.m. Eastern because of the weather forecast.

The matchup starts with two defenses that can make an opponent sustain drives. Kansas has allowed 4.2 yards per play and a 24.1% third-down conversion rate. Utah is conceding 84 rushing yards per game and has allowed only seven pass plays of at least 20 yards. That combination asks Kansas to find a different route than the huge rushing day it enjoyed against Middle Tennessee.

Isaiah Marshall has completed 54.8% of his passes. If Utah keeps the Jayhawks behind schedule, Kansas may struggle to turn enough possessions into touchdowns to push this game beyond 51.5. The supporting figures are in Kansas’ statistics and Utah’s game preview.

The Rice-Eccles Stadium forecast calls for southerly wind around 17 mph through the first few hours, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing later in the evening. Moving kickoff earlier reduces exposure to the wetter part of the forecast. The wind still supports our preference for fewer explosive completions and a game built around the run.

The risk: Utah has scored at least 31 points in every game, and Wayshawn Parker’s receiving ability can punish a defense concentrating on the backfield. Kansas’ defensive numbers also include games against LIU and Middle Tennessee. We need the Jayhawks to make Utah earn its points; an early avalanche or short fields can beat this under.

Fresno State +7 (-110, DraftKings)

Boise State at Fresno State, 10:30 p.m. ET

We want the full touchdown with a Fresno State defense that is generating pressure and getting off the field. The Bulldogs have 14 sacks through five games. In their win at Washington State, they allowed 182 total yards, 30 rushing yards and no touchdowns. They have held three opponents to 10 points or fewer, giving us a credible path to a one-possession game at home.

The matchup gets tougher against Boise State’s Dylan Riley, who already has 685 rushing yards. Fresno State needs to limit his early-down gains so its pass rush can matter. We like taking seven points with that defensive path, especially because a seven-point loss returns the stake. Fresno State’s official preview details the defensive production, while Boise State’s team statistics show Riley’s rushing total.

Fresno State’s leading rusher Rayshon Luke is questionable, along with two offensive linemen and three front-seven defenders on Friday’s Pac-12 report. Offensive lineman Gino Quinones is out. We would wait for the game-day availability update before playing +7.

The risk: Fresno State’s plus-eight turnover margin is a difficult pace to sustain. If Riley keeps Boise State ahead of the chains, the Bulldogs may struggle to create enough possessions to stay within a touchdown. The price depends on getting +7; we would pass if only +6.5 is available.

How we’re playing the night slate

USC moneyline and Kansas-Utah under 51.5 are our preferred starting points. Fresno State is a number-sensitive underdog, while the two touchdown props carry more scoring variance. We would play the selections individually and keep the total amount at risk within a preset limit.

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