TNF Week 3 DraftKings Showdown: Falcons vs. Packers | September 24, 2026
DraftKings TNF Week 3 Falcons-Packers Showdown picks with Captain ownership, CPT/FLEX evaluation, lineup construction, leverage and CTS Core.
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Falcons-Packers gives us a Week 3 Thursday Night Football Showdown with a quarterback change, a missing Packers receiver, an unsettled Green Bay backfield and one of the strongest historical quarterback-receiver usage connections on the slate.
The obvious raw plays are Bijan Robinson and Jordan Love. The more interesting question is whether Michael Penix Jr. immediately restores the concentrated Drake London role we saw across 2024-25, and whether Green Bay’s missing targets push Tucker Kraft or Matthew Golden into a larger ceiling game.
Captain Ownership Projection
| Player | CPT Salary | Projected CPT | CTS Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | $17,700 | 22.0% | Good chalk, massive role, difficult salary |
| Jordan Love | $15,000 | 18.0% | Strong raw projection, less unique |
| Drake London | $13,200 | 15.0% | Favorite leverage captain |
| Christian Watson | $14,700 | 12.0% | Volatile ceiling captain |
| Michael Penix Jr. | $13,500 | 10.0% | Atlanta passing-script captain |
| Matthew Golden | $11,700 | 7.0% | Strong GPP leverage |
| Tucker Kraft | $10,500 | 6.0% | Favorite low-owned TD captain |
| MarShawn Lloyd | $11,100 | 4.0% | Committee risk |
| Kyle Pitts | $9,900 | 2.5% | Role-change leverage |
| Packers DST | $7,500 | 1.5% | Pressure/turnover script |
| Chris Brooks | $8,100 | 0.8% | Deep backfield leverage |
| Other | Varies | 1.2% | Large-field only |
Total projected Captain ownership: 100%.
Best Captain: Drake London $13,200
London is our favorite combination of ceiling, salary and leverage. Across 14 career games in which Penix appeared, London has 148 targets, 91 catches, 1,286 yards and nine touchdowns. In the nine 2025 Penix games, the concentration was even clearer: 94 targets, 60 catches and 810 yards. At $13,200 Captain, London is $4,500 cheaper than Bijan and $1,800 cheaper than Love.
London Captain naturally pairs with Penix. Kraft, Golden and Watson are our preferred Green Bay bring-backs. We do not need Bijan in every London build.
Best Raw Captain: Bijan Robinson $17,700
Bijan owns the most complete role on the slate. He has 48 offensive touches through two games and remains heavily involved as a receiver. The problem is what $17,700 does to the remaining salary. Bijan Captain works best when we intentionally embrace one or two cheap pieces.
GPP Captains
Tucker Kraft $10,500
Kraft is our favorite lower-owned Captain. Atlanta has allowed three touchdowns to tight ends, Reed is out, and Kraft gives us a path to Love without paying Love’s Captain salary.
Matthew Golden $11,700
Golden led Green Bay with 58 receiving yards in Week 2. With Reed unavailable, his route and target ceiling becomes more interesting. He is particularly useful when Watson’s touchdown equity draws more ownership.
Michael Penix Jr. $13,500
If Atlanta rebounds through multiple pass catchers, Penix can outscore any individual receiver while allowing London plus Pitts or Bijan underneath him.
Kyle Pitts $9,900
Pitts is a true boom-or-bust Captain. His 2026 usage has been terrible, but Atlanta has acknowledged the problem and his 2025 Penix sample produced 53 targets in nine games.
Flex Evaluation
Jordan Love $10,000: one of the strongest FLEX plays and close to mandatory in Packers pass-catcher Captain builds.
Christian Watson $9,800: expensive relative to volume but owns multi-touchdown ceiling.
Michael Penix Jr. $9,000: strong FLEX in London/Pitts Captain builds. Green Bay’s 45.6% pressure rate creates downside, but the salary is reasonable for a starting QB.
Drake London $8,800: one of our favorite FLEX plays even when not Captain.
Matthew Golden $7,800: strong mid-tier option with Reed out.
MarShawn Lloyd $7,400: viable but not automatic. Green Bay split Week 2 carries among Kaleb Johnson, Lloyd and Chris Brooks.
Tucker Kraft $7,000: one of our favorite price-adjusted FLEX plays. He does not need massive volume if the scoring role hits.
Kyle Pitts $6,600: uncomfortable leverage, best paired with Penix.
Chris Brooks $5,400 / Kaleb Johnson $4,000: leverage off Lloyd. Johnson led Green Bay with eight Week 2 carries, while Brooks adds receiving utility.
Brian Robinson Jr. $4,400: useful for Atlanta-positive scripts or as leverage away from Bijan’s massive salary.
Packers DST $5,000: Green Bay owns a 45.6% pressure rate and Penix is returning to game action.
Zachariah Branch $3,800: preferred cheap Atlanta receiver tied to Penix.
Jonnu Smith $2,800: cheap Green Bay pass-game access, although Kraft is clearly preferred.
Lineup Construction
3-3: our default balanced build, especially with London, Love, Penix or Kraft at Captain.
4-2 Green Bay: our preferred Packers-leaning construction. Love plus two pass catchers and a GB back/DST can be brought back with London or Bijan.
4-2 Atlanta: more interesting with Penix. London Captain + Penix + Pitts/Bijan + a cheap Falcon can be brought back with Love plus one receiver.
5-1 Green Bay: reserve for the pressure-collapse script. Packers DST matters more, and the lone Falcon should usually be Bijan or London.
CTS Core
Drake London $8,800
Jordan Love $10,000
Tucker Kraft $7,000
Favorite Tournament Skeletons
London CPT: London + Penix + Love + Kraft, then solve the final two spots around the game script.
Kraft CPT: Kraft + Love + Golden/Watson + London bring-back.
Packers pressure build: Packers DST + Love + two GB skill players + one of London/Bijan.
The goal is not to jam the six highest projections. Every lineup should tell a coherent story about how Atlanta-Green Bay actually plays out.