TNF Week 3 Best Bets: Falcons vs. Packers | September 24, 2026

Thursday Night Football in Week 3 sends Atlanta to Green Bay with both offenses carrying more uncertainty than the names on the depth chart suggest. Green Bay is favored at home, but our favorite betting angles are concentrated in the player markets.

Atlanta turns the offense back over to Michael Penix Jr. after a brutal Week 2. Green Bay is without Jayden Reed, and the Packers’ backfield remains unsettled. That pushes us toward concentrated receiving roles rather than trying to predict every backfield touch.

CTS Best Bets

Drake London 60+ receiving yards (-143)

London is our favorite Falcons angle. Across his career games with Penix appearances, London has averaged 10.6 targets and 91.9 receiving yards. In nine 2025 Penix games, he drew 94 targets, caught 60 passes and produced 810 yards. Atlanta’s first two 2026 games do not resemble the role London historically held with Penix.

Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown (+190)

This is not a volume bet. It is a scoring-role bet. Atlanta has already allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends, and Green Bay enters without Jayden Reed. Kraft remains one of Jordan Love’s most natural scoring-area targets.

Jordan Love 2+ passing touchdowns (-115)

Green Bay’s running game is less trustworthy without Josh Jacobs, while Atlanta has struggled to stop opponents in the red zone. We would rather bet Love to finish drives through the air than guess which Packers back receives the scoring carry.

Kyle Pitts over 35.5 receiving yards (-113)

This is the uncomfortable play. Pitts has one catch through two games, but Atlanta has publicly acknowledged that his usage has to improve. In Penix’s nine 2025 games, Pitts drew 53 targets. We are betting on role correction with Penix rather than chasing Pitts’ 2026 box score.

Longshot Parlay

Drake London anytime TD (+180) + Tucker Kraft anytime TD (+190) + Jordan Love 2+ passing TDs (-115).

The legs tell one coherent story: Penix restores London’s concentrated receiving role while Green Bay’s passing game accounts for the favorite’s touchdowns. Use the live same-game parlay price rather than multiplying the displayed single-leg prices.

Deep Longshot

Tucker Kraft 2+ touchdowns (+1500). This is a small high-variance angle, not a core bet. Atlanta’s early tight-end touchdown leakage, Reed’s absence and Kraft’s scoring-area role create a plausible multi-score path.

CTS Card

London 60+ receiving yards
Kraft anytime TD
Love 2+ passing TDs
Pitts over 35.5 receiving yards