NFL Week 5 London Best Bets: Eagles vs. Jaguars Picks and Props (Oct. 11, 2026)

The Eagles and Jaguars open Sunday’s Week 5 card in London at 9:30 a.m. ET on October 11. We break down our preferred bets, the prices we’d accept and the matchup risks that could change the card.

DraftKings has Jacksonville favored by 7.5 points with a 41.5 total. Philadelphia’s missing weapons bring the game under, Goedert’s catches and a smaller Hurts passing-yard under into the discussion. The narrower Hurts line needs particular restraint because a trailing Eagles offense can still pile up attempts. That spread already asks us to pay for Philadelphia’s problems. We’d rather attack how those problems affect the offense.

Pick	Odds	Our limit
Jalen Hurts under 186.5 passing yards, smaller stake	BetMGM -115	186.5 or higher, up to -115
Game under 41.5	DraftKings -108	41.5 or higher, up to -110
Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions	FanDuel +112	4.5 or lower, +100 or better; normal role

1. Smaller prop: Jalen Hurts under 186.5 passing yards

The personnel losses matter more than Hurts’ season average. Philadelphia ruled out Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Marquise Brown. Hurts is available after the calf issue, but availability doesn’t restore the receivers or the protection around him.

His first four passing totals were 203, 264, 153 and 93 yards. More telling: the last two games produced 246 yards on 52 attempts, or 4.73 yards per attempt. That is a recent efficiency problem, not simply a lack of opportunities.

The case for the over is obvious. Philadelphia is a sizable underdog, and trailing could force more throws. Dallas Goedert’s return also gives Hurts a reliable outlet. But extra attempts are less valuable when the offense is missing its most established wideouts and reshuffling its line. Short completions can keep drives alive without building a big passing total.

We would take under 186.5 at -115 as a smaller prop. The case rests on the recent passing inefficiency with missing wideouts, rather than Hurts’ season average. Goedert can help with short completions, but his return also narrows the case for the under. We would not follow a further drop below 186.5 or pay more than -115.

What beats it: Jacksonville scores early, Hurts clears 35 attempts, and Goedert or a replacement receiver turns a short catch into a long gain. A healthy Hurts can still punish an overly aggressive defense.

2. Smaller play: under 41.5 points

Jacksonville’s team preview describes a defense ranked second in points allowed and rushing defense through four games. That matters for an Eagles offense expected to lean on Will Shipley. More opportunity for Shipley does not automatically mean efficient offense.

Jacksonville also has two backs it is comfortable using in Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. A Jaguars lead can turn into longer rushing possessions rather than a constant push for explosive plays. That is the game shape this under needs.

The danger is field position. Turnovers, short fields and a defensive touchdown can beat a total without either offense playing especially well. Philadelphia’s returning defenders help, but they don’t make Jacksonville harmless.

Price discipline: 41.5 is the floor. At 40.5, we’d pass rather than surrender another point in a total already pricing in a damaged Eagles offense.

The Met Office forecast has light winds around Tottenham during the game window. The under case rests on the offensive matchup, rather than a large weather adjustment.

3. Dallas Goedert over 4.5 receptions

Goedert returns to an offense missing Barkley, Smith and Brown. He finished Friday in full and is cleared to play. That gives Hurts a familiar target in a game where Philadelphia may have to throw while trailing.

Five catches can fit alongside Hurts’ passing-yard under. Short throws to the tight end can account for a large share of a modest passing total. We prefer the reception line at +112 to needing Goedert to turn those opportunities into long gains.

Goedert had four catches in the opener and one before his Week 2 injury, then missed two games. We are not treating five catches as something he has been doing every week.

Our limit: 4.5 at even money or better. Pass if there is a late snap restriction. Extra pass-blocking work, quick three-and-outs or a bigger target share for Dontayvion Wicks would also put this in trouble.

Why we’re passing on the spread

Jacksonville -7.5 requires a win by more than a touchdown. The favorite can control the game, fit both under bets, and still win by seven. Philadelphia +7.5 is tempting on price alone, but the offensive absences make it hard to trust a full-game cover. There’s no need to force a side.

Our approach: These are three modest, price-sensitive plays. Keep Hurts’ passing-yard under smaller because the line leaves less room for late passing volume. An efficient Philadelphia passing day would hurt both unders, so keep the total stake across the card modest.

Separate small-stake touchdown parlay

Bhayshul Tuten and Dallas Goedert to score an anytime touchdown. Tuten has the lead-back opportunity for the favorite; Goedert gives Philadelphia an established scoring target with several other weapons missing.

Leg	BetMGM odds
Tuten anytime touchdown	-110
Goedert anytime touchdown	+270

Tuten still shares the backfield with Chris Rodriguez Jr., and LeQuint Allen Jr. and Jakobi Meyers are cleared. Goedert has to turn his return into an actual scoring chance. Either player can have a useful game without scoring.

Combined price: pending. Keep this as a small-stake option only once both legs are offered together. A low-scoring game leaves fewer chances for both players to get home.

First-touchdown longshot: Dallas Goedert

Odds: BetMGM +1700. Our minimum: +1700. Goedert scored twice in the opener and returns with Barkley, Smith and Brown absent. His clearance matters: an established tight end can be part of the opening red-zone plan immediately, without Philadelphia asking a replacement wideout to win downfield. An early throw to Goedert is a plausible scoring route, but it is far from the most likely result.

This must be the first touchdown of the entire game. Jacksonville could score before Goedert has a meaningful opportunity, and Hurts can keep the ball near the goal line. We would take only a token stake at +1700 or better. This is a speculative longshot with a stake below any straight bet, and we would pass at a shorter price.

Bet only what you can afford to lose. Prices can move, and no pick is guaranteed. Keep correlated bets and parlays smaller than standalone positions.