Steelers vs. Saints Picks: NFL Week 7 Paris Best Bets

Steelers -3 is our preferred play in Paris, with under 44.5 the second pick. Pittsburgh has the more convincing route to steady offense through Jaylen Warren. New Orleans can keep this close, but asking the Saints to win enough early downs against this defense is a tougher proposition than last week’s score suggests.

The NFL’s first regular-season game in France kicks off Sunday, October 25, at 9:30 a.m. ET at Stade de France, with coverage on NFL Network. Game and broadcast details.

DraftKings lines observed October 24, 2026. DraftKings market board.

Best bet: Steelers -3

Warren is the starting point. He has 460 rushing yards at 5.5 per carry, plus 21 catches. That gives Pittsburgh a productive option before Aaron Rodgers has to solve everything through the air. Steelers season statistics.

New Orleans has surrendered 828 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns through six games. We do not need Warren to match his season average on every carry. We need enough successful runs to keep Pittsburgh out of obvious passing situations and make the Saints defend more than Rodgers’ first read. Saints season statistics.

The receiver injuries make that balance important. Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson are on injured reserve, and Ben Skowronek is out. Germie Bernard answered with 11 receptions against Tampa Bay, but one breakout does not restore the missing depth. Pittsburgh can use the shorter passing game without assuming every replacement suddenly becomes a downfield threat. Steelers injury and personnel update.

We prefer laying the field goal to paying for a moneyline that needs the same team to win. A three-point Pittsburgh victory returns the spread stake. A close game is entirely plausible here; the bet does not require the Steelers to run away from New Orleans.

Second pick: Under 44.5

The offensive efficiency makes the under more appealing than the recent final scores. Pittsburgh is averaging 4.8 yards per play and has converted 25 of 76 third downs. Even when Rodgers completes a handful of short throws, a possession still needs another conversion before it becomes a touchdown opportunity. Pittsburgh’s offensive numbers.

New Orleans is averaging 4.7 yards per play, including 3.8 per rush. Tyler Shough’s 6.1 yards per attempt also points toward an offense that often needs several successful snaps in a row. Our expectation is that both sides will have productive stretches without sustaining a full afternoon of touchdown drives. New Orleans’ offensive numbers.

There is an obvious risk to that reading. Alvin Kamara turned a short pass into a 31-yard touchdown against the Giants. A low-risk completion can still become an explosive play, especially when a defender misses the first tackle. That is a better argument against this under than assuming an international game automatically means tired offenses. Kamara’s Week 6 touchdown.

Weather context, checked October 24: The Paris-area forecast has showers easing around Sunday’s afternoon kickoff, but stronger local gusts remain possible. The newer city hourly forecast and Météo-France’s Saint-Denis bulletin are not on-field wind readings. Weather could affect deep throws and kicks; our under still rests on the offensive matchup rather than assuming rain guarantees low scoring. Paris hourly forecast; Saint-Denis forecast.

Third pick: Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown

Pittsburgh’s run game can move the chains without producing the final play of a scoring drive. The Steelers have thrown on 88% of their snaps inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, and Freiermuth leads the team with four touchdown catches. That is why he is my scoring pick rather than simply following the rushing matchup. Pittsburgh’s close-range tendencies · Steelers player statistics

New Orleans has allowed 7.0 catches and 75.9 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Freiermuth does not need a huge afternoon to finish one drive, particularly with Pittsburgh short at receiver. Steelers injury report

The catch is Darnell Washington. His five end-zone targets lead the team, and his recent target volume is nearly level with Freiermuth’s. We are backing one scorer in a shared role, not a player who owns every goal-line opportunity.

Same-game parlay idea

Steelers moneyline + Pat Freiermuth anytime touchdown. The idea is straightforward: Pittsburgh wins, and one of its scoring drives ends through Freiermuth. Using the moneyline instead of the spread leaves room for a one- or two-point win.

Only use this combination if your sportsbook lets you pair the legs. There is no combined price quoted here. A Pittsburgh win does not guarantee a Freiermuth score, and adding the under would make the bet depend on another outcome we do not need.

Longshot: Darnell Washington first touchdown

Washington is the smaller-stakes shot at the opening touchdown. He leads Pittsburgh with five end-zone targets, and his 18 targets since Week 3 are only one behind Freiermuth. That gives him a more credible path than simply choosing the biggest payout on the board. Steelers matchup notes

This market asks for the game’s first touchdown, not just Pittsburgh’s first. One early Saints score ends the bet, and Freiermuth remains direct competition. Washington’s two touchdown catches show the role can pay off, but not often enough to treat this like a core pick. Season statistics

First-touchdown market observed on BetMGM’s October 24 board.

The injury picture

T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Jalen Ramsey have no final game designation. Rico Dowdle remains questionable and Brandin Echols is out. Pittsburgh activated DeShon Elliott from injured reserve on Saturday after listing him questionable Friday. That opens the door for his return, but Sunday’s game-day status still needs confirmation. Saturday roster update. The Saints list Cesar Ruiz and Nathan Shepherd as questionable, while Kamara and Shough have no game designation. Those distinctions matter more than simply counting names on a practice report. Friday injury report.

Bottom line: Steelers -3 remains our strongest opinion. Under 44.5 backs drives stalling often enough, while Freiermuth is our preferred touchdown scorer. The parlay and Washington first-touchdown shot are smaller, more volatile alternatives, not extra independent edges.