NFL Week 5 SNF Best Bets: Ravens vs. Falcons Picks and Props (Oct. 11, 2026)

Ravens-Falcons closes Sunday’s Week 5 schedule at 8:20 p.m. ET on October 11. We work through our preferred bets for Sunday Night Football, the prices we’d take and the injury conditions that still matter.

Lamar Jackson is out and Tyler Huntley will start. Atlanta is favored, with a 43.5 total. Drake London over 79.5 receiving yards is our first look, kept to a small, conditional lean. Atlanta’s moneyline also depends on Jake Matthews being available. Henry’s rushing under and Brian Robinson’s rushing over stay on the watchlist, while Mark Andrews remains our small-stake first-touchdown longshot at +1650.

Pick	Public price reference	Status and limit
Drake London over 79.5 receiving yards	BetMGM -115	Small, conditional lean: 79.5 or lower at -115 or better; normal Penix/London roles and Matthews available
Falcons moneyline	FanDuel -172	Conditional: -185 or better, with Matthews available
Derrick Henry under 80.5 rushing yards	FanDuel -113	Secondary watchlist: 80.5 or higher at -115 or better; Deablo and Ebukam available
Brian Robinson Jr. over 35.5 rushing yards	Price check pending	Watchlist only: 35.5 or lower at -115 or better, with Matthews available

1. Small, conditional lean: Drake London over 79.5 receiving yards

BetMGM -115. Limit: 79.5 or lower at -115 or better. London has led Atlanta’s receiving production since Michael Penix Jr. returned. His nine catches for 194 yards against Green Bay and five for 96 against New Orleans show how he can reach this number through repeated catches or downfield gains. This bet does not need his first touchdown of the season.

The concern is Atlanta’s passing volume. Penix attempted just 25 and 20 passes in those wins, and London caught 14 of 16 targets. That efficiency can fall even if his role holds. Two strong games do not make this a bargain at any line; we want the lower 79.5 number and will keep the stake small.

Condition: Penix and London must be available for their normal roles, with Jake Matthews available without a meaningful restriction. Baltimore is already missing Trey Hendrickson, while Marlon Humphrey remains questionable. Pass above 79.5 or at a price worse than -115.

Secondary watchlist: Derrick Henry under 80.5 rushing yards

Jackson’s absence and the loss of center Cam Jurgens give Atlanta a chance to squeeze Henry’s running lanes. The problem is volume: Henry ran for 89 yards on 26 carries, then 73 on 23 in his last two games. On 23 attempts, just over 3.5 yards per carry would beat this under. We have less margin than the matchup alone suggests.

Atlanta has ruled out Za’Darius Smith and placed Yasir Abdullah on injured reserve. Divine Deablo and Samson Ebukam remain questionable. Keep Henry on the secondary watchlist until both are available. If either is ruled out, pass at this number. Our limit remains 80.5 or higher at -115 or better.

2. Conditional side: Falcons moneyline

FanDuel’s public price reference is -172. We prefer the moneyline to its -3.5 spread because a three-point Atlanta win is enough. Keep the -185 ceiling: an improving Falcons offense still has to beat a Baltimore team capable of controlling the game through Henry.

The Falcons have a credible rushing base and a starter capable of making defenses respect the pass. In Atlanta’s last game with Michael Penix Jr. starting, its two-back combination produced 207 rushing yards on 33 carries. Brian Robinson Jr. scored three of those rushing touchdowns, a useful reminder that Bijan does not own every scoring opportunity.

Baltimore is also missing Trey Hendrickson, while Marlon Humphrey is questionable. Those defensive questions matter independently of Jackson’s absence. A depleted Ravens pass rush would make it easier for Atlanta to stay balanced.

Condition: Jake Matthews must be available without a meaningful restriction. He is questionable despite finishing the practice week in full. If he sits, pass on the side at this price.

Risk: Huntley protects the ball, Henry keeps Baltimore on schedule, and the Ravens’ defense turns this into a one-possession finish. The moneyline removes the spread problem, not the possibility Atlanta loses outright.

3. Watchlist: Brian Robinson Jr. over 35.5 rushing yards

Atlanta has given Brian Robinson a steady role alongside Bijan. His first four workloads were nine, 11, 10 and 14 carries, producing 31, 51, 50 and 62 yards. The appeal is that repeat involvement, rather than expecting another three-touchdown game.

At 35.5, Robinson can clear the line with 10 carries at 3.6 yards per attempt. His rotation gives that a reasonable path, but Bijan remains the lead back and Baltimore has allowed 3.9 yards per rush through four games. Keep this on the watchlist until 35.5 or lower is available at -115 or better; do not chase a higher line.

Condition: Matthews must be available without a meaningful restriction. A Baltimore lead could reduce the carries left for Atlanta’s second back. Even if the price and injury conditions clear, this remains a small position.

Why there is no automatic game under

A backup quarterback can lower an offense’s ceiling, but turnovers and short fields can raise scoring variance. Baltimore’s defensive absences also help Atlanta. Those competing possibilities keep us off the full-game total at 43.5.

London’s receiving over and Atlanta’s moneyline both need the Falcons’ offense to function, but an Atlanta win built almost entirely on the run could leave London short. Henry and Brian remain watchlist angles, not extra equal-sized bets to pile onto the same game. Keep the total stake small. The stadium plans an open roof, weather permitting, so check the final conditions before kickoff.

Same-game parlay: pass for now

Atlanta moneyline with Brian Robinson over 35.5 fits a Falcons-led rushing game, but there is no confirmed combined price on this card. We are leaving the parlay off. If the straight bets clear their conditions, there is no need to add another ticket tied to the same result.

First-touchdown longshot: Mark Andrews at +1650

BetMGM +1650. Our price for this card: +1650 or longer. Andrews gives Baltimore a receiving option close to the goal line. His first four games produced 18 catches for 149 yards, including five catches last week. A short receiving touchdown is his route to winning this ticket.

Andrews practiced in full all week and has no game designation. Huntley does not guarantee him extra targets, Henry can finish Baltimore’s drives on the ground, and Atlanta can score first. This bet needs Andrews to score the first touchdown of the entire game. Keep it to the smallest stake on the card.

Bet only what you can afford to lose. Prices can move, and no pick is guaranteed. Keep correlated bets and parlays smaller than standalone positions.