NFL Week 7 Best Bets: Spreads and Totals for October 25

Vikings -6.5 is our favorite side. Packers–Lions over 53.5 is the game we’re backing to open up. The rest of the card leans toward specific matchup advantages rather than picking every favorite on the board.

Sunday’s afternoon slate gives us two very different kinds of games. Minnesota can make Indianapolis work for every first down. Green Bay and Detroit have the explosive players to skip the long drives altogether. That’s where our attention starts.

DraftKings lines observed October 24, 2026, at approximately 7:28 a.m. ET. This card covers Sunday’s afternoon games.

The five-pick card

Game	Pick	Kickoff ET	The short version
Colts at Vikings	Vikings -6.5	1 p.m.	Protection problems meet Minnesota’s pressure, with the Vikings getting healthier.
49ers at Falcons	49ers -2.5	1 p.m.	San Francisco can keep the offense concentrated against a damaged Atlanta defense.
Dolphins at Jets	Under 39.5	1 p.m.	Miami has struggled to create efficient offense, especially through the air.
Broncos at Cardinals	Under 43.5	4:05 p.m.	Neither offense has consistently turned plays into meaningful yardage.
Packers at Lions	Over 53.5	4:25 p.m.	Downfield threats on one side, versatile scoring options against a weakened linebacker group on the other.

These are individual picks, not a five-leg parlay. DraftKings market board.

1. Vikings -6.5 vs. Colts

We like the way this matchup can squeeze Indianapolis. Daniel Jones has averaged only 5.5 yards per pass against the blitz, with pressure reaching him on 48.7% of those dropbacks. Against Brian Flores, simply identifying the extra rusher is only the first problem. The ball still has to get out on time, and the receiver has to turn a short completion into something useful.

Minnesota is allowing 12.8 points per game. The Colts’ own preview notes their limited explosive passing production against blitzes. That makes it harder to erase a bad series with one big play. Colts matchup preview.

The personnel picture also favors Minnesota. Tyler Warren and Sauce Gardner are out for Indianapolis. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Christian Darrisaw and T.J. Hockenson have no final game designation for the Vikings. Jordan Mason was also activated Saturday, giving Minnesota another established rushing option. Indianapolis has since ruled out linebacker CJ Allen. The offense has more ways to punish a defense that overcommits to one answer, though a healthier backfield also gives Minnesota a path to win through the run. Mason activation; updated Colts report. Colts injury update; Vikings final report.

Minnesota’s own offense is the other reason this is not a comfortable favorite. The Vikings are averaging 4.4 yards per play and have five passing touchdowns as a team. Getting receivers back helps, but it does not erase the efficiency problem. To cover -6.5, the defense needs enough support to create a seven-point margin, not merely drag Minnesota to a close win. Vikings team statistics.

2. 49ers -2.5 at Falcons

San Francisco’s injuries are real. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel Sr. are out, and Nick Bosa is also unavailable. Christian Kirk was activated from injured reserve Saturday and had his questionable designation removed. His return gives Brock Purdy another receiving option, but it does not restore the missing starters. 49ers final injury report; Saturday Kirk activation.

But Atlanta has problems in the areas San Francisco can keep attacking. Linebacker Divine Deablo and defensive back Billy Bowman Jr. are out. A.J. Terrell was activated Saturday and no longer has a game designation, so Atlanta’s secondary is healthier than Friday’s report suggested. Avieon Terrell is inactive, but C.J. Henderson is available alongside A.J. Terrell. That is a specific secondary adjustment, not a reason to treat Atlanta as having no healthy coverage options. Falcons final inactives. Falcons Saturday update. Losing a defensive communicator matters against an offense that can move its best receiving options around before the snap. Falcons final injury report.

Our preference is to trust Brock Purdy’s established connections with Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle rather than assume the receiver absences erase the offense. Kittle already has five touchdowns and just put up 69 receiving yards against Washington. He gives San Francisco an obvious answer when Atlanta tries to crowd the run. Kittle’s season and game log.

3. Dolphins–Jets under 39.5

Miami is averaging 153.6 passing yards per game. New York is allowing 183. That doesn’t automatically produce an under, but it puts the burden on Miami to win somewhere it hasn’t consistently won yet. Breece Hall and Kene Nwangwu are inactive for New York, changing the Jets’ backfield options. That is another personnel consideration, not a guarantee of fewer points. Jets final inactives.

Weather is not doing the work for this pick. The East Rutherford forecast updated Saturday afternoon, October 24, calls for a dry Sunday afternoon with light wind around kickoff. The under needs the offensive matchup to hold up in favorable playing conditions. Game-time hourly forecast.

The Dolphins have used two-back personnel regularly, yet those plays have averaged only 3.7 yards. Our read is that a run-heavy approach without strong early-down efficiency can turn into a lot of work for very little scoring. Long possessions help an under only if they end without touchdowns.

There is a fair counterargument. Miami is coming off a bye, and its schedule included San Francisco, Kansas City and Minnesota. The offense could look better against this opponent. Omar Cooper Jr. also returned for the Jets with a 103-yard game, so New York has another way to punish missed tackles. Those are the risks, not reasons to pretend either offense has been humming. Jets’ Week 7 preview.

4. Broncos–Cardinals under 43.5

Denver is 4-2, but the offense hasn’t earned much benefit of the doubt. The Broncos are averaging 4.2 yards per play, 3.4 per rush and 5.6 per pass attempt. Those numbers make laying a road spread less appealing than backing a modest scoring environment. Broncos team statistics.

Arizona has averaged 4.4 yards per play, with Jacoby Brissett at 5.7 yards per attempt. Trey McBride can collect catches without turning the entire game into a track meet. That’s an important distinction: an offense can move the ball in small pieces and still struggle to finish enough drives to clear this total. Cardinals team statistics.

We also have to respect the opposing case. Arizona has allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt. That gives Denver a real opening for better efficiency, especially with Jaylen Waddle carrying no game designation. Denver’s final inactive list confirms that safety Talanoa Hufanga and Pat Surtain II are both out. Denver’s final inactives.

5. Packers–Lions over 53.5

This is the highest-scoring game script on our card, and we aren’t hiding from the big number. Christian Watson averages 18.6 yards per catch; Matthew Golden averages 16.7. Green Bay has the receivers to score without needing a perfect 12-play possession. Packers season statistics.

Detroit can attack a different weakness. Zaire Franklin is out, joining Edgerrin Cooper on the unavailable list. That increases the stress on Green Bay’s remaining linebackers against Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and the play-action game. Jordan Love, Watson and Golden have no final designation. Detroit activated Brian Branch and center Cade Mays on Saturday, and neither carries a game designation. Branch’s return is a real counterweight to Green Bay’s downfield passing case. Green Bay also activated Josh Jacobs, adding another established rushing option without guaranteeing a full workload. Lions transactions; updated Lions report; Jacobs activation. Packers’ final injury report.

Jared Goff has 12 touchdown passes without an interception, while Gibbs has scored seven times on the ground and twice through the air. Detroit doesn’t need to force every important touch through one player. Lions season statistics.

Bottom line: Minnesota is the side we like most. The three totals tell different stories, so don’t treat them as interchangeable picks. Back the matchup, understand the failure case, and keep stakes reasonable.