NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Sunday 10/4 Picks, Spreads, Totals & Moneyline
NFL Week 4 best bets for Sunday, October 4, 2026, including spreads, totals, moneylines, team totals, first-half bets and a CTS parlay.
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Week 4’s Sunday card has been refreshed against the current morning market and official injury report. We are keeping the card concentrated rather than forcing action into every game.
CTS Best Bets
Bills -7
Buffalo remains our favorite full-game side. New England is without CB Christian Gonzalez and DT Christian Barmore, while Buffalo brings the healthier offense and the slate’s highest scoring expectation.
Bills First Half -3.5
This remains our preferred derivative if the number is still available. It captures Buffalo’s opening-script advantage without requiring a full four quarters of margin.
Jaguars-Bengals Over 51.5
The market is sitting around 51.5 rather than the stale 52 we previously displayed. This remains our favorite total because both passing games have clear paths to volume, and the same environment leads our DFS stack board.
Ravens -11.5
Baltimore remains our favorite large favorite. Tennessee’s offense has struggled, while Derrick Henry gives Baltimore a clean path to converting a lead into clock control and red-zone opportunities. Baltimore’s offensive-line injuries keep this below our top Buffalo bet.
Texans -3
Nico Collins is available, while Dallas is without CB Cobie Durant and LB DeMarvion Overshown. Houston’s defense is missing Azeez Al-Shaair and M.J. Stewart, so we prefer the short spread rather than an aggressive alternate here.
Bears -3.5
The Jets are without Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor. Chicago is also without Caleb Williams, so this is a smaller-confidence play than Buffalo or Baltimore rather than a spot to chase an alternate spread.
Moneyline Parlay
Buffalo ML + Baltimore ML + Houston ML
These are three teams we expect to win without forcing all three spreads into one ticket.
Aggressive Alternate Angles
Buffalo -13.5: our favorite alternate-spread swing if the plus-money price is attractive. Baltimore -17.5: smaller sprinkle built around Tennessee failing to sustain offense. These are ceiling bets, not substitutes for the standard card.
CTS Card
Favorite side: Buffalo -7. Favorite derivative: Buffalo 1H -3.5. Favorite total: Jaguars-Bengals Over 51.5. Favorite large favorite: Baltimore -11.5. Favorite shorter favorite: Houston -3.