Patriots vs. Seahawks Best Bets: NFL Week 1 Picks & Player Props
Our favorite Patriots vs. Seahawks bets for NFL opening night, including three game and player prop picks plus a first touchdown long shot.
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The NFL season opens Wednesday night with a Super Bowl LX rematch in Seattle. New England upgraded Drake Maye’s supporting cast this offseason, but the Patriots now enter Week 1 without TreVeyon Henderson and face the defense that shut them down seven months ago.
1. Patriots Team Total Under 20.5
Seattle’s defense is where I’m starting. The Seahawks allowed only 17.2 points per game last season, the best mark in football, and then held this Patriots offense to 13 points in Super Bowl LX.
New England is better at receiver after adding A.J. Brown, but this isn’t the ideal spot to immediately assume a major offensive jump. Henderson is out with an ankle injury, removing one of the offense’s most explosive players, and center Ben Brown is also unavailable.
Seattle’s secondary isn’t completely healthy either, but the strength of this defense starts up front. If the Seahawks can pressure Maye without constantly sending extra rushers, New England is going to have to sustain long drives rather than live on explosive plays.
20 points can still cash this. That’s important enough for me to make the Patriots team total under my favorite bet of the night.
2. Drake Maye Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
This is directly connected to the team-total angle, but I like the prop enough to play it separately.
Maye threw 31 touchdown passes last season and now has A.J. Brown, so the talent isn’t the question. The issue is what happens when New England gets close to the goal line against Seattle.
The Seahawks were one of football’s best defenses at preventing opponents from finishing drives last season. If Stevenson absorbs more goal-line work with Henderson unavailable, Maye can play a perfectly respectable game without throwing multiple touchdowns.
The price isn’t cheap at -165, so I wouldn’t chase it much farther. At the current number, though, I prefer the under.
3. Sam Darnold Over 29.5 Pass Attempts
Seattle’s offense is the more interesting side of this matchup because the backfield looks very different from the one that won the Super Bowl.
Kenneth Walker III is gone, and first-round rookie Jadarian Price enters a committee that also includes George Holani and Emanuel Wilson. New England’s defensive front is also the part of its defense I’d least like to attack.
That creates a straightforward path to volume for Darnold. Seattle doesn’t need to be trailing for this over to hit. Thirty attempts is a modest threshold if the Seahawks use the short passing game as an extension of the run and allow Jaxon Smith-Njigba to remain the centerpiece of the offense.
I like the volume more than betting on Darnold’s passing-yard total because attempts don’t require the same level of efficiency.
First TD Long Shot: A.J. Barner
Barner already did this once against New England. He scored the opening touchdown of Super Bowl LX, and his red-zone role gives him a realistic path to doing it again without paying the short price attached to Seattle’s stars.
This isn’t a bet I’m treating like the three plays above. First-touchdown markets are inherently volatile. But if we’re taking one swing at a bigger number, Barner makes sense.
He was a full participant this week after appearing on the injury report, so there is no current game designation holding him back. Seattle can use heavier personnel near the goal line, and defensive attention naturally flows toward JSN and the backfield.
DraftKings is also currently featuring a Barner first-touchdown plus Seahawks moneyline combination at +1500, which gives us some confirmation that the market is offering a legitimate plus-money route around this angle.
The Short List
Odds and lines move throughout the day. Check the current number before placing a bet. Injury statuses verified Wednesday morning, Sept. 9, 2026.