NFL DFS Week 7: DraftKings Ownership Projections and Pivots
Week 7 DraftKings ownership estimates by position, with chalk decisions, salary-aware pivots and practical GPP construction.
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Early inactive-list update: Breece Hall is out. The ownership percentages below are a pre-inactives reference, not refreshed current estimates. Hall’s old conditional estimate has been withdrawn. The remaining numbers retain their original forecast and should not be read as a recalculation after the final inactive lists. Use the player analysis alongside confirmed availability, not as a current ownership ranking.
- The decisions that matter most
- The salary decision on Gibbs
- McCaffrey’s savings carry more ownership
- Huntley changes the quarterback choice, not Flowers’ recent workload
- McCarthy is the Giants’ starter
- Quarterback ownership
- Running back ownership
- Wide receiver ownership
- Tight end ownership
- Defense ownership
- How I would build around these numbers
Original CTS market-informed estimates: October 25, 2026, at 3:12 a.m. ET, for large-field DraftKings main-slate GPPs. Jets final inactives.
In our pre-inactives Week 7 forecast, Christian McCaffrey led estimated running back ownership at about 34%, compared with 21% for Jahmyr Gibbs. McCaffrey’s $2,200 savings make it easier to pay for receivers. Gibbs gives me a lower-owned spend-up, but at $9,800 he still has to justify what I give up elsewhere.
These are estimated player-selection percentages for large-field DraftKings GPPs on the Sunday, October 25 main slate. First lock is 1 p.m. ET. Paris, Sunday night and Monday night are separate slates.
The decisions that matter most
| Player | Salary | Est. ownership | My approach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | $9,800 | 21% | A lower-owned spend-up than McCaffrey, with a tougher salary fit. |
| Christian McCaffrey | $7,600 | 34% | Strong salary fit; find differentiation elsewhere. |
| Woody Marks | $5,600 | 19% | Useful savings, with receiving work as well as carries. |
| Matthew Golden / Christian Watson | $6,000 / $7,000 | 24% / 13% | Watson is the lower-owned choice, but costs $1,000 more. |
| Tyler Higbee | $3,500 | 11% | Affordable, but more popular than Schultz. Prioritize targets. |
The salary decision on Gibbs
Gibbs has caught between four and seven passes in each of his five games. Six catches in the Buffalo loss and four in the Carolina loss matter here: he can contribute without Detroit controlling every possession. The $9,800 price is what makes the decision difficult.
I would rather keep Gibbs and change one sensible part of the lineup than replace him with a worse role just to be different. If you prefer Detroit’s passing touchdowns, Goff, St. Brown and LaPorta cost $19,400 together. Their estimates are about 6%, 19% and 14%. That stack needs Detroit’s scoring to go through the air; Gibbs finishing drives on the ground is the obvious risk. Gibbs game log.
McCaffrey’s savings carry more ownership
McCaffrey is at about 34%, and his $7,600 salary leaves a very different receiver budget. I would look for differentiation in the stack or another roster spot rather than pretending McCaffrey is a contrarian choice. He has both rushing and receiving paths. I do not need to assume another nine-catch game to like that flexibility.
Christian Kirk has been activated and his questionable designation removed. That adds another receiving option despite the Evans and Samuel absences, so I am not handing every missing target to McCaffrey or Kittle. McCaffrey’s season-long rushing range of 10–16 carries is another reason to avoid treating him as a guaranteed monster-volume play. Kirk’s return · McCaffrey game log.
Huntley changes the quarterback choice, not Flowers’ recent workload
Lamar Jackson is out. Huntley is $4,900 and around 2%, while Flowers is $6,900 and around 11%. Flowers’ nine and 11 targets in Weeks 5–6 already came with Huntley, so there is no reason to erase that receiving role just because Lamar is unavailable again.
The limit is the result: Flowers caught 14 passes for 119 yards and no touchdowns in those two games, while Huntley threw for 201 and 165 yards. That supports a PPR argument, not a free pass to assume a shootout. I would still consider Flowers opposite a Cincinnati stack, but skip the bring-back if it forces weak salary fillers. Week 5 · Week 6.
McCarthy is the Giants’ starter
J.J. McCarthy will start at Houston, with Jameis Winston serving as the backup. McCarthy is $4,800 and about 2%; he is the quarterback to consider when stacking Giants pass catchers. Winston’s backup role keeps him out of this ownership table. Giants’ quarterback announcement.
Quarterback ownership
The leading quarterback estimates are Jordan Love (13%), C.J. Stroud (12%), Bo Nix (11%). Start with the passing combination you like, then consider how popular that stack may be. A lower quarterback percentage alone does not make a better lineup.
| Player / team | DK salary | Est. ownership | Availability note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love / GB | $6,000 | 13% | — |
| C.J. Stroud / HOU | $5,700 | 12% | — |
| Bo Nix / DEN | $5,000 | 11% | — |
| Brock Purdy / SF | $6,600 | 7% | — |
| Bryce Young / CAR | $5,900 | 7% | — |
| Jared Goff / DET | $6,800 | 6% | — |
| Kyler Murray / MIN | $5,400 | 5% | — |
| Matthew Stafford / LAR | $6,400 | 5% | — |
| Malik Willis / MIA | $4,700 | 4% | — |
| Joe Burrow / CIN | $6,900 | 4% | — |
| Deshaun Watson / CLE | $5,200 | 4% | — |
| Geno Smith / NYJ | $5,100 | 4% | — |
| Baker Mayfield / TB | $5,500 | 3% | Active; will start |
| Michael Penix Jr. / ATL | $5,300 | 3% | — |
| Kirk Cousins / LV | $5,800 | 3% | — |
| Tyler Huntley / BAL | $4,900 | 2% | — |
| J.J. McCarthy / NYG | $4,800 | 2% | — |
| Cam Ward / TEN | $4,600 | 2% | — |
| Jacoby Brissett / ARI | $5,600 | 2% | — |
| Daniel Jones / IND | $4,900 | 2% | — |
Running back ownership
Marks at 19% and Irving at 11% offer different salary choices, not identical workloads. Returning backs such as Jacobs and Mason also matter to the opportunity available behind them.
| Player / team | DK salary | Est. ownership | Availability note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey / SF | $7,600 | 34% | — |
| Bijan Robinson / ATL | $8,500 | 31% | — |
| Jahmyr Gibbs / DET | $9,800 | 21% | — |
| Woody Marks / HOU | $5,600 | 19% | — |
| Kyren Williams / LAR | $7,000 | 18% | — |
| Chuba Hubbard / CAR | $6,700 | 12% | — |
| Bucky Irving / TB | $6,100 | 11% | — |
| Derrick Henry / BAL | $7,900 | 11% | — |
| Braelon Allen / NYJ | $5,900 | 7% | — |
| Tony Pollard / TEN | $5,300 | 6% | — |
| Jonathan Taylor / IND | $8,000 | 5% | — |
| Chase Brown / CIN | $6,600 | 4% | — |
| Ashton Jeanty / LV | $6,500 | 4% | — |
| Breece Hall / NYJ | $6,000 | Unavailable | INACTIVE |
| Jordan Mason / MIN | $5,200 | 4% | — |
| Ollie Gordon II / MIA | $5,500 | 4% | — |
| Josh Jacobs / GB | $6,300 | 3% | — |
| J.K. Dobbins / DEN | $5,700 | 3% | — |
| Aaron Jones Sr. / MIN | $6,200 | 3% | — |
| Quinshon Judkins / CLE | $5,400 | 2% | — |
| Tyler Allgeier / ARI | $5,000 | 2% | — |
| Blake Corum / LAR | $5,000 | 1% | — |
| Samaje Perine / CIN | $4,600 | 1% | — |
| RJ Harvey / DEN | $5,400 | 1% | — |
| Kaelon Black / SF | $5,100 | 1% | — |
| Cam Skattebo / NYG | $5,100 | 1% | — |
| Pierre Strong Jr. / GB | $4,300 | 1% | — |
| MarShawn Lloyd / GB | $4,900 | 1% | — |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. / NYG | $4,800 | <1% | — |
| Bam Knight / ARI | $4,100 | <1% | — |
Wide receiver ownership
Golden saves $1,000 compared with Watson, but their estimates are 24% and 13%, respectively. Watson gives me a less popular way to play Green Bay if I can afford the extra salary without weakening another position. Puka is active. His displayed estimate remains a pre-inactives reference, not a refreshed ownership forecast or a workload guarantee. NFL final inactives.
| Player / team | DK salary | Est. ownership | Availability note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Golden / GB | $6,000 | 24% | — |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown / DET | $7,800 | 19% | — |
| Puka Nacua / LAR | $8,400 | 15% | ACTIVE; pre-inactives estimate |
| Jalen Coker / CAR | $6,100 | 13% | — |
| Christian Watson / GB | $7,000 | 13% | — |
| Drake London / ATL | $7,500 | 13% | — |
| Ja'Marr Chase / CIN | $8,100 | 13% | — |
| Chris Godwin Jr. / TB | $4,300 | 12% | — |
| Garrett Wilson / NYJ | $6,500 | 11% | — |
| Zay Flowers / BAL | $6,900 | 11% | — |
| Tetairoa McMillan / CAR | $7,100 | 11% | — |
| Tee Higgins / CIN | $6,600 | 10% | — |
| Jaylen Waddle / DEN | $5,500 | 9% | — |
| Nico Collins / HOU | $7,200 | 9% | — |
| Justin Jefferson / MIN | $7,300 | 9% | — |
| Malik Nabers / NYG | $6,800 | 8% | — |
| Malik Washington / MIA | $4,900 | 6% | — |
| Jameson Williams / DET | $5,800 | 6% | — |
| Jordan Addison / MIN | $5,300 | 5% | — |
| Omar Cooper Jr. / NYJ | $4,100 | 5% | — |
| Keenan Allen / IND | $4,800 | 5% | — |
| Ted Hurst III / TB | $3,000 | 5% | — |
| Josh Downs / IND | $5,600 | 4% | — |
| Carnell Tate / TEN | $5,100 | 4% | — |
| Michael Wilson / ARI | $6,200 | 4% | — |
| Denzel Boston / CLE | $5,400 | 4% | — |
| Courtland Sutton / DEN | $4,700 | 4% | — |
| Kendrick Bourne / ARI | $4,000 | 4% | — |
| Wan'Dale Robinson / TEN | $4,600 | 4% | — |
| Tre Tucker / LV | $5,200 | 3% | — |
Tight end ownership
Higbee at about 11% carries more popularity than Schultz at 4%. The $100 saving on Higbee is too small to drive the decision by itself. Higbee’s snap share rose from 67% to 83% between Weeks 5 and 6 while his targets fell from 6 to 4. I prefer judging the receiving role before chasing the percentage.
| Player / team | DK salary | Est. ownership | Availability note |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle / SF | $5,700 | 21% | — |
| Sam LaPorta / DET | $4,800 | 14% | — |
| Tucker Kraft / GB | $4,700 | 11% | — |
| Tyler Higbee / LAR | $3,500 | 11% | — |
| Brock Bowers / LV | $7,700 | 9% | — |
| Cade Otton / TB | $3,100 | 8% | — |
| Trey McBride / ARI | $7,400 | 7% | — |
| Isaiah Likely / NYG | $5,300 | 7% | — |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. / ATL | $4,000 | 5% | — |
| T.J. Hockenson / MIN | $4,500 | 5% | — |
| Dalton Schultz / HOU | $3,600 | 4% | — |
| Harold Fannin Jr. / CLE | $4,200 | 3% | — |
| Michael Mayer / LV | $3,700 | 3% | — |
| Mark Andrews / BAL | $3,900 | 2% | — |
| Will Mallory / IND | $2,600 | 2% | — |
| Darren Waller / CAR | $3,400 | 2% | — |
| Evan Engram / DEN | $3,000 | 2% | — |
| Colby Parkinson / LAR | $3,000 | 2% | — |
| Josh Cuevas / BAL | $2,700 | 2% | — |
| Mason Taylor / NYJ | $2,800 | 2% | — |
| Mike Gesicki / CIN | $3,800 | 2% | — |
| Tommy Tremble / CAR | $2,900 | 2% | — |
| Greg Dulcich / MIA | $3,200 | 2% | — |
| Foster Moreau / HOU | $2,600 | 2% | — |
| Kenyon Sadiq / NYJ | $3,300 | 1% | — |
| Gavin Bartholomew / MIN | $2,500 | 1% | — |
| Elijah Higgins / ARI | $2,900 | 1% | — |
| Will Kacmarek / MIA | $2,500 | <1% | — |
| Daniel Bellinger / TEN | $2,500 | <1% | — |
| Erick All Jr. / CIN | $2,500 | <1% | — |
Defense ownership
Minnesota is about 6% at $3,500; Tennessee about 11% at $2,600. I prefer the Vikings when the extra $900 does not weaken an offensive position. Saving at defense is useful when it buys a meaningful receiver upgrade.
| Player / team | DK salary | Est. ownership | Availability note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets / NYJ | $2,900 | 11% | — |
| Titans / TEN | $2,600 | 11% | — |
| Texans / HOU | $3,400 | 9% | — |
| Browns / CLE | $2,800 | 8% | — |
| Broncos / DEN | $3,300 | 6% | — |
| Vikings / MIN | $3,500 | 6% | — |
| Dolphins / MIA | $2,300 | 5% | — |
| Buccaneers / TB | $2,200 | 4% | — |
| Cardinals / ARI | $2,400 | 4% | — |
| Ravens / BAL | $2,700 | 4% | — |
| Bengals / CIN | $2,500 | 4% | — |
| Panthers / CAR | $3,000 | 4% | — |
| Colts / IND | $2,400 | 4% | — |
| Rams / LAR | $3,100 | 3% | — |
| 49ers / SF | $3,200 | 3% | — |
| Giants / NYG | $2,100 | 3% | — |
| Raiders / LV | $2,000 | 3% | — |
| Lions / DET | $2,500 | 3% | — |
| Falcons / ATL | $2,200 | 2% | — |
| Packers / GB | $2,300 | 2% | — |
How I would build around these numbers
For one lineup, start with a strong role and a passing stack you believe in. Then make one or two changes that still make football sense. McCaffrey with a Cincinnati stack is a different roster from Gibbs with Green Bay receivers, even if neither lineup is full of obscure players.
Do not multiply these percentages to estimate the popularity of a complete lineup. Players in the same offense are often selected together. And a player near 2% can still be a poor choice if his path to touches is weak.
For the deeper player arguments, use our main-slate picks, GPP stacks and pivots, and values under $4,000. The DraftKings player board covers the rest of the slate.