NBA Best Bets: October 22, 2026
Maxey over 23.5 points and Denver +8.5 lead Thursday’s NBA card, with exact price limits and an Embiid watch list tied to Jarrett Allen’s status.
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Thursday, October 22: Denver +8.5 remains a conditional play at -110 or better. Tyrese Maxey over 23.5 points is a pass at the latest observed -111; only consider it at -110 or better. Philadelphia–Cleveland tips at 7 p.m. ET, followed by Denver–Oklahoma City at 9:30 p.m. ET. Jarrett Allen’s questionable status is the main early-game availability decision.
October 22, 5:30 p.m. ET update: DraftKings Network’s prop board showed Maxey over 23.5 points at -111, outside our -110 limit: pass at that price. Its game board showed Denver +8.5 at -110, back within the limit after an earlier 4:54 p.m. ET observation of -115. These are dated public observations, not guaranteed executable offers. The original midday quotes below remain for context. Embiid remains watch only; no fresh exact 11.5 rebounds + assists quote was verified.
Original card and unchanged price limits
| Pick | Observed price | Bet only at | Pass if |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey over 23.5 points | -107 | 23.5 at -110 or better | The line rises to 24.5 or the price is worse than -110 |
| Denver Nuggets +8.5 | -110 | +8.5 at -110 or better | The cushion drops below +8.5 or the price is worse than -110 |
Prices observed October 22, 2026, at 12:18–12:19 p.m. ET on DraftKings Network’s game board and player-prop board. These are dated observations, not guaranteed available offers. Check the exact line, price and settlement terms in your location before betting. New availability or workload news can invalidate a play.
1. Tyrese Maxey over 23.5 points
The question entering Philadelphia’s season was how the ball would be shared with Jaylen Brown and LeBron James joining Joel Embiid and Maxey. The official opening-night gamebook offers an encouraging first answer for Maxey: 19 field-goal attempts, nine free-throw attempts and 39:34 on the floor. He finished with 28 points.
The case is opportunity, not simply betting a player who scored well last time. He led that group in attempts and minutes even with its other principal scorers involved. At 23.5, the required result is 24 points, not another ceiling game.
What can beat it: one game does not establish a permanent rotation. Philadelphia has multiple players capable of leading the scoring, and fewer minutes or a different distribution of possessions would reduce Maxey’s margin. Do not assume his opening-night workload repeats exactly. This is a small, price-sensitive single, not a lock.
Limit: over 23.5 at -110 or better. Pass at 24.5, and pass if adverse availability or workload news emerges.
2. Denver +8.5 at Oklahoma City
This is a bet on Denver staying within the number, not a prediction that the Nuggets must win outright. Jokić’s NBA profile lists prior-season averages of 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists. His ability to create for teammates as well as score gives Denver more than one route to answer an Oklahoma City run.
Denver can use Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray to sustain offense through difficult stretches. The eight-and-a-half-point cushion allows an Oklahoma City win without requiring every Denver possession to go right. It is still a basketball judgment, not a claimed model edge or a guarantee of a close finish.
What can beat it: Oklahoma City already demonstrated its scoring pressure in its opener, and Denver is beginning its season on the road. Turnovers, a prolonged scoring drought or a late Thunder run could erase the cushion quickly. Denver’s changed rotation also adds uncertainty. The latest report lists Julian Strawther out and Spencer Jones questionable.
Limit: +8.5 at -110 or better. Do not chase +7.5, and reassess after any new setback involving Denver’s core players.
Watch only: Joel Embiid over 11.5 rebounds + assists
The player-prop board showed -128 at 12:24 p.m. ET. This is not a third play. Embiid contributed 11 rebounds and six assists in 33:26 on opening night, but one game is not enough to assume that combination repeats or to accept a short price without further review.
The 11:30 a.m. ET injury report lists Allen questionable. His absence could change Cleveland’s interior matchup, but an Allen scratch alone would not activate this prop. A fresh exact offer, current Embiid workload news and a renewed matchup assessment are still required.
Keep the card disciplined
Maxey three-pointers overlap heavily with the points position, so they are not being added just to make the card longer. The totals are also passes for now. Clear price limits matter more than forcing four wagers: Maxey is a pass at the latest observed price, while Denver remains conditional on +8.5 at -110 or better. Keep stakes modest and do not chase losses.