NFL Week 1 DFS Picks: DraftKings Main Slate Breakdown for September 13
DraftKings NFL Week 1 picks for Sunday, with the best plays, chalk to eat or fade, leverage, stacks and lineup-building routes for the 12-game main slate.
By 
Sunday’s 12-game DraftKings NFL main slate starts at 1:00 p.m. ET. Week 1 pricing gives us real value, but this is not a slate where we want to copy the optimizer’s most common lineup and call it analysis. The goal is to identify the strongest plays, understand why the field is landing there, decide which chalk deserves to stay in our lineups, and build clear alternatives when ownership gets ahead of a player’s actual edge.
- CTS Week 1 decision board
- The most important decision: Detroit chalk
- Where the chalk is, and what CTS is doing with it
- Quarterback
- Justin Herbert, Chargers, $6,100
- Joe Burrow, Bengals, $6,900
- Jared Goff, Lions, $6,000
- Lamar Jackson, Ravens, $6,800
- Running back
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions, $8,000
- Bucky Irving, Buccaneers, $5,700
- De’Von Achane, Dolphins, $7,000
- Omarion Hampton, Chargers, $6,800
- Ashton Jeanty, Raiders, $6,600
- Running backs we are treating carefully
- Wide receiver
- Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals, $7,800
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions, $7,500
- Ladd McConkey, Chargers, $5,900
- DeVonta Smith, Eagles, $6,600
- Zay Flowers, Ravens, $6,400
- Tight end
- Defense / Special Teams
- Our favorite Week 1 stack routes
- 1. Bengals passing game: our favorite tournament stack
- 2. Chargers passing game: best late-window stack
- 3. Detroit passing game: direct Gibbs leverage
- 4. Ravens-Colts: contrarian star stack
- 5. Eagles-Commanders: great players in a neglected game
- How to build around the chalk
- CTS final Week 1 stance
CTS Week 1 decision board
Best raw play: Jahmyr Gibbs, $8,000
Best price-adjusted QB: Justin Herbert, $6,100
Favorite GPP stack: Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins + Tampa Bay bring-back
Favorite midrange RB value: Bucky Irving, $5,700
Preferred premium WR: Ja’Marr Chase, $7,800
Best cheap TE: Michael Mayer, $2,900
Favorite leverage spend: Trey McBride, $6,800
Favorite DST: Steelers, $3,300
The most important decision: Detroit chalk
Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown are both excellent individual plays. That does not make them an automatic $15,500 pairing. Detroit carries one of the slate’s highest implied totals, so both can absolutely succeed in the same game, especially in cash games or a deliberate Lions onslaught. But in tournaments, paying premium salaries for two popular players from the same offense also concentrates our lineup around one team’s touchdown distribution.
Our default construction is now simple: if Gibbs is the Detroit piece, we prefer to spend our premium receiver salary outside Detroit. Ja’Marr Chase is the first choice. If St. Brown is the Detroit piece, we prefer to use him with Jared Goff and usually leave Gibbs out of that lineup. Gibbs plus St. Brown remains viable when the lineup is intentionally betting on Detroit smashing its team total, but it is not our default core.
That distinction matters because the field is already making the Detroit decision for us. Multiple ownership models put Gibbs in the 40-to-50 percent range, while St. Brown sits around the low-20s. We are willing to eat good chalk, but we do not need to stack expensive chalk simply because both players project well.
Where the chalk is, and what CTS is doing with it
| Player | Ownership shape | CTS stance | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs, $8,000 | Mega chalk | Eat in cash and smaller fields; underweight, not zero, in large GPPs | Best raw projection, bigger role, strong team total. The concern is price plus ownership, not talent. |
| Ja’Marr Chase, $7,800 | High owned | Good chalk | Elite target ceiling in the slate’s highest-total game. He is our preferred premium WR. |
| Michael Mayer, $2,900 | Popular value | Eat when the salary matters | Brock Bowers is out and Mayer’s price creates flexibility. In tournaments, McBride is the clean leverage pivot. |
| Chris Olave, $6,700 | High owned | Trim as a one-off | The role and matchup are good, but ownership is doing a lot of the work. We prefer him as a correlated bring-back rather than a default one-off. |
| Bijan Robinson, $7,700 | High owned | Underweight | Elite player, but Atlanta starts Cooper Rush at Pittsburgh. We can find similar ceiling with cleaner environments or lower ownership. |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, $7,500 | Popular | Play through a Goff passing-game route | Still an elite play, but we prefer not to pair him with Gibbs by default. |
| Jaguars DST, $3,400 | Popular DST | Fine in cash, easy GPP fade | The matchup is good, but DST is volatile and there are cheaper paths to sacks and turnovers. |
Quarterback
Justin Herbert, Chargers, $6,100
Herbert is the quarterback we like most when salary, ceiling and game environment are viewed together. Los Angeles owns the highest implied team total on the slate, and Herbert is priced below the elite tier. Ladd McConkey ($5,900) is the first stacking partner, Quentin Johnston ($4,700) is the cheaper route, and Trey McBride ($6,800) is our preferred Arizona bring-back.
Herbert is the cleanest cash and small-field quarterback. For tournaments, the key is not to force every Chargers piece into the same lineup. If you use Herbert and his receivers, you are betting on Los Angeles scoring through the air.
Joe Burrow, Bengals, $6,900
Burrow is our favorite tournament quarterback because the game is expensive in all the right places but the quarterback himself is not projected to carry extreme ownership. Tampa Bay-Cincinnati has the highest total on the slate, and Burrow gives us direct access to Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) and Tee Higgins ($6,300).
Chase is the premium version. Higgins is the leverage version. Bucky Irving ($5,700) is our favorite bring-back because he preserves salary while keeping the lineup attached to the same game. Chris Godwin Jr. ($5,200) works when we want a receiving bring-back instead.
Jared Goff, Lions, $6,000
Goff is how we want to attack Detroit when we are not simply clicking Gibbs. If the Lions score through the air, Goff plus St. Brown ($7,500) and either Sam LaPorta ($4,400) or Jameson Williams ($6,000) gives us direct leverage on the slate’s most popular player.
In these builds, Gibbs is usually the piece we leave out. Devaughn Vele ($3,500) is a salary-friendly Saints bring-back, while Olave is the higher-volume but much chalkier version.
Lamar Jackson, Ravens, $6,800
Large-field tournaments do not require us to find bad players nobody wants. Lamar gives us an elite ceiling at modest ownership in a 47-plus point game. Zay Flowers ($6,400) is the first stacking partner, and Tyler Warren ($4,900) or Josh Downs ($5,200) can bring the lineup back from Indianapolis.
Other quarterback route: Jalen Hurts ($6,600) is another high-ceiling star the field is not prioritizing. Hurts plus DeVonta Smith ($6,600) is a strong alternative when you want to get away from the Herbert, Burrow and Detroit builds without sacrificing a quarterback who can win the slate with his legs.
Running back
Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions, $8,000
Gibbs remains the best individual play on the slate. Detroit traded David Montgomery and has been explicit about a larger Gibbs workload. He owns both rushing and receiving paths to a ceiling game, and Detroit is favored at home with one of the slate’s biggest team totals.
Our stance is contest-dependent. In cash games and smaller fields, we are comfortable eating the ownership. In large-field GPPs, we prefer to come in below a field that could roster him on nearly half of its lineups. That is an ownership decision, not a prediction that Gibbs fails.
Bucky Irving, Buccaneers, $5,700
Irving is the midrange back we most want to build around. He is first on Tampa Bay’s depth chart, Sean Tucker is doubtful, and the Buccaneers are involved in the slate’s highest-total game. He can score on the ground, catch passes if Tampa falls behind, and works naturally as a Burrow-stack bring-back.
De’Von Achane, Dolphins, $7,000
Achane is our preferred high-end pivot when we want to fade Gibbs without sacrificing explosive ceiling. He costs $1,000 less, carries a true receiving role, and does not need Miami to dominate the game to produce. The game total is lower than Detroit’s, but that is already reflected in ownership.
Omarion Hampton, Chargers, $6,800
Hampton is one of our favorite tournament alternatives because the Chargers have the slate’s highest implied team total and are large home favorites. If Los Angeles controls the game on the ground, Hampton can beat the more popular Herbert passing-game construction. Treat Hampton and the Herbert double stack as two different game stories, not pieces we need to force together.
Ashton Jeanty, Raiders, $6,600
Jeanty is the Raiders’ RB1, practiced fully through the week and offers a real workload at a salary surrounded by more popular names. We like him as a standalone tournament pivot. If Michael Mayer is already in the lineup, adding Jeanty should be an intentional bet on Las Vegas controlling the game, not an automatic pairing in a low-total environment.
Breece Hall, Jets, $6,200: Hall remains a useful one-off and a strong secondary option, but he is no longer one of our featured pivots. Achane, Hampton and Jeanty give us cleaner tournament reasons to move away from the field.
Running backs we are treating carefully
- Bijan Robinson, Falcons, $7,700: this is an ownership and environment fade, not a talent fade. Cooper Rush starts for Atlanta against Pittsburgh, and we do not need to pay near-Gibbs salary at elevated ownership in that setup.
- MarShawn Lloyd, Packers, $4,800: Lloyd is likely to lead Green Bay’s backfield with Josh Jacobs unavailable, but he enters the season with only six NFL carries and one reception. Around moderate ownership he is playable. If the field pushes him into true chalk territory, we would rather make him beat us.
- New Orleans backfield: Alvin Kamara ($4,900) is questionable after returning to full practice Friday. That uncertainty keeps both Kamara and Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,900) out of our core. Etienne becomes much more interesting if the final backfield shape gives him the lead role.
Wide receiver
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals, $7,800
Chase replaces St. Brown as our preferred premium receiver. He gives us elite raw ceiling in the highest-total game on the slate, and his popularity is easier to accept because the role is so concentrated. Chase also pairs better with a Gibbs roster because we are not putting $15,500 of premium salary into one offense.
Chase practiced fully Wednesday and Thursday, received a rest day Friday and carries no game designation.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions, $7,500
Nothing about this re-audit says St. Brown is a bad play. The change is how we use him. He is one of our favorite receivers in Goff lineups and one of our least necessary additions to a Gibbs lineup. In tournaments, we want St. Brown to represent the Detroit passing-game path rather than simply becoming the second expensive Lion we click.
Ladd McConkey, Chargers, $5,900
McConkey is the first receiver we want with Herbert. The price is manageable, his role gives the stack a reception floor, and he lets us save enough salary to bring the game back with McBride. Quentin Johnston ($4,700) is the cheaper, more volatile way to build the same passing-game thesis.
DeVonta Smith, Eagles, $6,600
Smith is the kind of tournament pivot we prefer over a random minimum-salary receiver. He has a legitimate ceiling, plays with a quarterback who can push the game over expectation, and is projected for a fraction of the ownership carried by the slate’s chalk receivers. Hurts-Smith is one of our favorite ways to be different without being reckless.
Zay Flowers, Ravens, $6,400
Flowers gives us access to a healthy game total without forcing a popular stack. He is especially useful with Lamar, but he can also work as a one-off in lineups that already have enough correlation elsewhere.
Tee Higgins, Bengals, $6,300: Higgins is the lower-owned way to build Burrow. If Chase ownership makes your lineup too popular, Burrow-Higgins keeps the same game thesis while changing the roster construction.
Chris Olave, Saints, $6,700: Olave projects well and should command volume, but he is one of the receivers we are most comfortable coming in below the field on as a standalone play. He makes more sense when he is directly bringing back a Detroit stack.
Large-field only: Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,500) is extremely low owned, but the projection is not strong enough for us to call him a core leverage play. Rome Odunze ($5,400) carries a questionable tag and becomes interesting only if active without late concern. These are tournament darts, not players we are using simply because nobody else is.
Tight end
Michael Mayer, Raiders, $2,900
Brock Bowers is out, and Mayer is the simplest salary release on the slate. That makes him good chalk, especially in cash games and single-entry builds that need the savings. The important part is what we do with the money. Playing Mayer only to spend into every other popular player creates a lineup the field can duplicate easily.
Trey McBride, Cardinals, $6,800
McBride is one of our favorite tournament spends on the entire slate. The field wants to save at tight end, which leaves an elite-volume option at very low ownership. He fits perfectly as the bring-back to Herbert-Ladd or Herbert-Johnston, and he also works in double-tight-end builds with Mayer when the rest of the lineup has enough ceiling.
Sam LaPorta, Lions, $4,400
LaPorta is not a priority one-off, but he is an important part of the Goff leverage route. Goff plus St. Brown plus LaPorta creates a direct bet that Detroit’s touchdowns come through the passing game rather than through Gibbs.
Defense / Special Teams
Steelers, $3,300
Pittsburgh is our preferred defense with Cooper Rush starting for Atlanta. The Steelers are home favorites in a low-total game, and the matchup creates sack and turnover paths without forcing us to pay all the way up.
- Jets, $2,500: favorite salary-saving defense in the slate’s lowest-total game.
- Raiders, $2,900: contrarian late-window option against a Miami offense starting Malik Willis.
- Jaguars, $3,400: strong matchup and completely playable, but easy to move away from in tournaments if they remain the field’s favorite DST.
- Chargers, $3,500: expensive but viable in lineups that are betting on Los Angeles controlling Arizona from start to finish.
Our favorite Week 1 stack routes
1. Bengals passing game: our favorite tournament stack
Joe Burrow ($6,900) + Ja’Marr Chase ($7,800) or Tee Higgins ($6,300) + Bucky Irving ($5,700) or Chris Godwin Jr. ($5,200)
Burrow plus Chase plus Irving costs $20,400 and leaves $29,600 for the other six roster spots. If you need more salary or less ownership, Burrow plus Higgins plus Godwin costs $18,400 and changes the construction without abandoning the slate’s best game environment.
2. Chargers passing game: best late-window stack
Justin Herbert ($6,100) + Ladd McConkey ($5,900) + Trey McBride ($6,800)
That three-player shell costs $18,800 and leaves $31,200 for six spots. Quentin Johnston can replace McConkey to save another $1,200. The alternative Chargers story is Hampton plus McBride, which bets on Los Angeles scoring on the ground instead of through a Herbert double stack.
3. Detroit passing game: direct Gibbs leverage
Jared Goff ($6,000) + Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,500) + Sam LaPorta ($4,400) + Devaughn Vele ($3,500)
This four-player shell costs $21,400 and leaves $28,600 for five spots. We normally leave Gibbs out. If Detroit scores four or five touchdowns and most of them come through Goff, this lineup tells a coherent story that beats the most common Detroit construction.
4. Ravens-Colts: contrarian star stack
Lamar Jackson ($6,800) + Zay Flowers ($6,400) + Tyler Warren ($4,900) or Josh Downs ($5,200)
Lamar plus Flowers plus Warren costs $18,100 and leaves $31,900. It gives us an elite quarterback ceiling in a strong total without joining the most popular games on the slate.
5. Eagles-Commanders: great players in a neglected game
Jalen Hurts ($6,600) + DeVonta Smith ($6,600) + Terry McLaurin ($5,700) or Stefon Diggs ($5,200)
This is another way to make a tournament lineup different without relying on fringe players. Hurts can break a slate with rushing touchdowns, and Smith is one of the better midrange leverage receivers.
How to build around the chalk
Cash and small-field: start with projection and role. Herbert, Gibbs and Mayer are all pieces we are comfortable eating. Bucky gives the lineup another strong salary-adjusted role. You do not need to fade a good play simply because everyone sees it.
Single-entry and 3-max: eat one or two of the best chalk pieces, then make a real stand elsewhere. Gibbs plus Chase is a much cleaner premium combination for us than Gibbs plus St. Brown. Mayer can stay if the savings let you reach McBride, DeVonta, Hampton or another ceiling play the field is skipping.
Large-field GPPs: this is where we become more aggressive. If Gibbs lands near 40-to-50 percent, we want less than the field, not necessarily zero. Achane, Hampton and Jeanty are our preferred replacements because they still own real workloads and ceilings. The goal is not to fade Gibbs for a worse running back. The goal is to trade some median projection for enough ownership and roster-construction leverage to matter.
Three rules we do not want to break
- Do not default to Gibbs plus St. Brown. Use Gibbs as the Detroit anchor, or use Goff-St. Brown as the alternate Detroit scoring path. Pair both only when the lineup is intentionally onslaughting Detroit.
- Do not play every chalk value together. Gibbs, Mayer, Chase, Olave and the popular DST can all be individually good while still creating an overly duplicated lineup when combined.
- Do not chase low ownership by itself. Our favorite pivots are Achane, Hampton, Jeanty, McBride, DeVonta and Zay because the role and ceiling survive the ownership test. A player being one percent owned is not enough.
CTS final Week 1 stance
Jahmyr Gibbs is still our best raw play, but he is no longer treated as an automatic tournament lock. Justin Herbert is our preferred price-adjusted quarterback. Joe Burrow is our favorite GPP stack quarterback. Bucky Irving is our favorite midrange running back value. Ja’Marr Chase is our preferred premium receiver. Michael Mayer is good chalk at tight end, while Trey McBride is one of the strongest leverage plays on the entire slate.
The biggest change from our first pass is Detroit construction. We love Gibbs. We also love St. Brown. We do not love blindly spending $15,500 on both in the same tournament lineup. We would rather force the lineup to tell a story: Gibbs plus a premium receiver from another offense, or Goff plus St. Brown as the passing-game leverage route.
That is the larger rule for Week 1. Know what the field is doing, eat the chalk that deserves it, and make your pivots with players who can actually outscore the chalk. The best lineup is not the one with the lowest ownership. It is the lineup with the best combination of projection, ceiling, correlation and a path the rest of the field is not building often enough.